The minute that you learn that bad beats will never end in poker is the minute you are one step closer to having the mindset you need to be a long term, successful poker. Not only do I understand that bad beats will happen, I do sick, masochistic things to myself like calculate that I will have AA cracked between 500 and 1000 times more the rest of my life.
I simply estimated the number of hours and hands I will play the rest of my life, figured out how many times I will be dealt AA based on the average, and then took 15-20% of that number to estimate how often I will lose with them. Depending on some variance and how many hands I actually play I could actually lose 1000 times, I could lose as little as 500 times. But I will lose with AA hundreds and hundreds of more times. Same with KK and QQ. It is simply going to happen. What we as poker players need to learn is how to cope with those losses. Being prepared never hurts in life. I am not meaning to come across as pessimistic, just realistic. The next time I lose with AA to 67 I will, hopefully, remain calm and understand it is a part of the game. It is a neccessary part of the game. I will look forward to the thousands of times that I will win with the hand and keep my focus on the fact that poker is a long term propositon. I don't care if I make money tonight. I don't even care if I make money this week. What I care about is making money over the year.
So, when my AA lost to 10 5 on Sunday when the guy thought he had lost and did not realize he had two pair, I just took a breath, and moved on to the next hand. I have a lot more to play.
Disciplined Degenerate
Tuesday, July 17, 2012
Friday, July 6, 2012
My set was no good...or was it?
If you play enough poker you get to a point where you think you have seen it all. Between 2003 and 2007 I played hundreds of thousands of hands if not a million hands online. Since 2009 I have played more days in card rooms than days I didn't play. In nine years I have played a whole lot of poker and yet I saw something the other day I have never seen. That is one of the things that makes the game still fun and exciting after all of these years. On any given day anything can happen at the poker table.
The other day I was playing in a pretty loose $1/2 No Limit game with big chip stacks. There was one man in the game who only had about $150 (the shortest stack in the game other than him was probably $450) in front of him. He had not won a pot in a long time and couldn't seem to get anything going. Somebody raised it preflop to $10 and this player, we will call Alan, called as did I. I had 33 and the flop came 3 5 7 rainbow (suits are not relevant in this hand). Pretty darn good board for my hand. The original raiser checked, Alan checked, and I made a bet of $25. The original raiser folded and Alan called. The turn was an 8. Alan checked and I bet $40. After long deliberation he called. The rivers was a King and he checked. He had about $80-90 left and I really didn't think he would call an all in bet and I wanted to get paid off so I bet $40 again. Alan folded his cards face up without even thinking about it. He showed KK. Yes, pocket Kings for top set. Alan called $40 on the turn with KK on a 3 5 7 8 board and then folded on the river for $40 on a 3 5 7 8 K board! And he showed his hand, folding face up like he was proud of his laydown! He didn't speak about the hand even though the table was in shock and discussing the bizzare play. He is an old fella, and hardly ever speaks at the table. He is a war veteran and pretty well liked so nobody really probed him on it. I still have no idea what he was thinking. Maybe he thought that I had a straight and the fact that I just bet once more on the river confirmed his suspicions? That seems pretty wacky but I have no idea what else it could be. I don't think he misread his hand either. I truly, truly don't know what happened in that hand. I don't think I have ever seen someone call a bet on the turn with a strong hand and then fold his hand when it received maximum improvement without any other danger on the board such as a flush card on the river. And the bet on the river was very small compared to the pot. And he was losing in the game and had not won a pot in hours! I have never seen anything like it but I was happy to take the money and the pot. It is my greatest bluff to this date! :)
Disciplined Degenerate
The other day I was playing in a pretty loose $1/2 No Limit game with big chip stacks. There was one man in the game who only had about $150 (the shortest stack in the game other than him was probably $450) in front of him. He had not won a pot in a long time and couldn't seem to get anything going. Somebody raised it preflop to $10 and this player, we will call Alan, called as did I. I had 33 and the flop came 3 5 7 rainbow (suits are not relevant in this hand). Pretty darn good board for my hand. The original raiser checked, Alan checked, and I made a bet of $25. The original raiser folded and Alan called. The turn was an 8. Alan checked and I bet $40. After long deliberation he called. The rivers was a King and he checked. He had about $80-90 left and I really didn't think he would call an all in bet and I wanted to get paid off so I bet $40 again. Alan folded his cards face up without even thinking about it. He showed KK. Yes, pocket Kings for top set. Alan called $40 on the turn with KK on a 3 5 7 8 board and then folded on the river for $40 on a 3 5 7 8 K board! And he showed his hand, folding face up like he was proud of his laydown! He didn't speak about the hand even though the table was in shock and discussing the bizzare play. He is an old fella, and hardly ever speaks at the table. He is a war veteran and pretty well liked so nobody really probed him on it. I still have no idea what he was thinking. Maybe he thought that I had a straight and the fact that I just bet once more on the river confirmed his suspicions? That seems pretty wacky but I have no idea what else it could be. I don't think he misread his hand either. I truly, truly don't know what happened in that hand. I don't think I have ever seen someone call a bet on the turn with a strong hand and then fold his hand when it received maximum improvement without any other danger on the board such as a flush card on the river. And the bet on the river was very small compared to the pot. And he was losing in the game and had not won a pot in hours! I have never seen anything like it but I was happy to take the money and the pot. It is my greatest bluff to this date! :)
Disciplined Degenerate
Monday, July 2, 2012
Poker, poker, and more poker
That was my weekend. Poker, poker, and more poker. On Thursday night I played until almost 2:00 in the morning despite the fact that I had to be at work at 8:00 am. On Friday night I played until 2:00 am again and I played from 1:00 pm until about 8:00 pm on both Saturday and Sunday. I have been in true grind mode lately and it certainly doesn't hurt that I have been winning. I won all four of these weekend sessions and have won six out of seven sessions overall.
My best night was Friday night in that I played mistake free for over six hours. That is not something that is easy to do and not something I claim often--to not make any mistakes over a six hour session. But it was one of the best sessions that I played in a long time. I did lose two big pots--one to start the night and one to finish--but even those hands I played perfectly and just got unlucky.
One of the first hands of the night I had 10 10 and called a raise from a pretty bad player. The flop came 10 K Q. He bet $30 and I made it $100 on the flop. After some deliberation he called. The turn came a 4 and he checked. I bet the rest of my stack which was about $100 and he thought even longer but decided to call and when the 9 hit the river his JJ beat my set.
Towards the end of the night there was a pretty aggressive and impatient player who was losing who made it $135 to go (all in) preflop after a $5 straddle and a couple of calls. I looked down at two black nines. I studied for a while and came to the conclusion that I was probably 90% or better to have the best hand. Having played with him many times I was almost 100% certain that if he had 10 10 or better he would not try blow everybody out like this. He would definitely raise but he would want more action. It was also late in the evening, he was ready to go and wanted to double up or lose his money. I was certain that I had him and made the call. Everyone folded and sure enough he turned over 67 and my read was "dead on balls accurate." Unfortunately there is a lot of luck in poker and when 4 hearts hit the board his 6 of hearts made a flush and beat my pair of nines.
So in that session I had two hands that I played perfect, got it in as a big favorite and happened to lose both. However the good news is that I was getting the best of it when I got in the middle. Throughout the rest of the night I played flawlessly and did not get really unlucky other than those two hands. Despite those two brutal beats I managed to win a couple hundred dollars on the night.
When you can have two bad beats for decent size pots and still win hundreds of dollars it is very satisfying. I will be taking a break tonight after playing 25 hours of poker over four days and will be back at it on Tuesday night. Hopefully I will play just as well as I did over the weekend and fade the bad beats!
Disciplined Degenerate
My best night was Friday night in that I played mistake free for over six hours. That is not something that is easy to do and not something I claim often--to not make any mistakes over a six hour session. But it was one of the best sessions that I played in a long time. I did lose two big pots--one to start the night and one to finish--but even those hands I played perfectly and just got unlucky.
One of the first hands of the night I had 10 10 and called a raise from a pretty bad player. The flop came 10 K Q. He bet $30 and I made it $100 on the flop. After some deliberation he called. The turn came a 4 and he checked. I bet the rest of my stack which was about $100 and he thought even longer but decided to call and when the 9 hit the river his JJ beat my set.
Towards the end of the night there was a pretty aggressive and impatient player who was losing who made it $135 to go (all in) preflop after a $5 straddle and a couple of calls. I looked down at two black nines. I studied for a while and came to the conclusion that I was probably 90% or better to have the best hand. Having played with him many times I was almost 100% certain that if he had 10 10 or better he would not try blow everybody out like this. He would definitely raise but he would want more action. It was also late in the evening, he was ready to go and wanted to double up or lose his money. I was certain that I had him and made the call. Everyone folded and sure enough he turned over 67 and my read was "dead on balls accurate." Unfortunately there is a lot of luck in poker and when 4 hearts hit the board his 6 of hearts made a flush and beat my pair of nines.
So in that session I had two hands that I played perfect, got it in as a big favorite and happened to lose both. However the good news is that I was getting the best of it when I got in the middle. Throughout the rest of the night I played flawlessly and did not get really unlucky other than those two hands. Despite those two brutal beats I managed to win a couple hundred dollars on the night.
When you can have two bad beats for decent size pots and still win hundreds of dollars it is very satisfying. I will be taking a break tonight after playing 25 hours of poker over four days and will be back at it on Tuesday night. Hopefully I will play just as well as I did over the weekend and fade the bad beats!
Disciplined Degenerate
Tuesday, June 26, 2012
The things that gamblers say PART 2
From time to time I make notes in my phone about funny and stupid things I hear and see at the poker table and in casinos. I blogged about some of these once before here:
Things that gamblers say
Since these funny and crazy things never stop happening I thought I would make this a series of blogs. All of the following happened in the past month or so:
A poker player next to me had 88 and called a raise and the flop came A K 5. Everyone checked the flop and the turn was a 9. This time the raiser bet and there was a call, the man showed me 88 before folding and said "what do you want to bet an 8 comes out on the river?" I told him that I would bet him $5 that one does not and that I would lay him 2-1 odds! He said "give me 3-1." I said yes and put three $5 chips off to the side to his one $5 chip and when an 8 didn't hit the river I won his $5. The odds were over 20-1 against an 8 hitting.
I was playing blackjack at the Silver Legacy casino in Reno NV and saw a player to my right get dealt two threes against a dealers Jack. He split the threes. He drew a King on the first three and hit again and busted. On the next three he got dealt an Ace and stayed on his soft 14. The dealer had an 8 underneath and the player lost. It would be hard to play that hand any worse. Blackjack players are typically very clueless on how to play proper basic strategy but this was one of the worst plays I have ever seen.
Also while playing at the Silver Legacy in Reno a female player was sitting at third base when a man walked up to the table to her left and wanted to sit down. There was not much room (because obviously there was a player at third base) but he seemed determined to fit in. The dealer politely told the man that the spot was not open but the one on the other side of her was open and he was welcome to play there. The player looked the dealer in the eyes and said "Can't she just move over?" The dealer said no and that she can stay in the spot if she likes. The man walked away and did not sit in the open seat. Too bad for him the dealer did not make the lady move because he really wanted third base.
I was playing in a limit hold em game at the Bay 101 casino in San Jose CA. I raised it up with AQ and was called by Q3 and his pair of 3's on the flop beat my Ace high. The very next hand the same player folded when it was limped to him. The flop came 8 high and he complained to his neighbor that he had folded Q8 and he would have top pair. He called my raise with Q3 (I had been playing fairly tight) and refused to limp in the next hand with Q8.
I was playing in a No Limit Hold Em game and two players went all in on a Jack high board. The person who bet all in said "Do you have a jack?" The player who called nodded his head yes. The bettor said "so do I." The board ran out and neither player had a Jack. One had an underpair and one had a flush draw. This got a pretty good chuckle from all of the players. Even when all in they felt they had to lie!
I was playing in a No Limit Hold Em game and a player called a raise preflop. He then called a bet on the flop, turn and river. The board was A 10 6 6 8. He called all the way to the river which was a $30 bet. He had 22 and lost to the aggressor who had an Ace. The player with the 22 said that he made the call because he was "winning for the session."
More to come in future blogs. These guys never stop giving me material!
Disciplined Degenerate
Things that gamblers say
Since these funny and crazy things never stop happening I thought I would make this a series of blogs. All of the following happened in the past month or so:
A poker player next to me had 88 and called a raise and the flop came A K 5. Everyone checked the flop and the turn was a 9. This time the raiser bet and there was a call, the man showed me 88 before folding and said "what do you want to bet an 8 comes out on the river?" I told him that I would bet him $5 that one does not and that I would lay him 2-1 odds! He said "give me 3-1." I said yes and put three $5 chips off to the side to his one $5 chip and when an 8 didn't hit the river I won his $5. The odds were over 20-1 against an 8 hitting.
I was playing blackjack at the Silver Legacy casino in Reno NV and saw a player to my right get dealt two threes against a dealers Jack. He split the threes. He drew a King on the first three and hit again and busted. On the next three he got dealt an Ace and stayed on his soft 14. The dealer had an 8 underneath and the player lost. It would be hard to play that hand any worse. Blackjack players are typically very clueless on how to play proper basic strategy but this was one of the worst plays I have ever seen.
Also while playing at the Silver Legacy in Reno a female player was sitting at third base when a man walked up to the table to her left and wanted to sit down. There was not much room (because obviously there was a player at third base) but he seemed determined to fit in. The dealer politely told the man that the spot was not open but the one on the other side of her was open and he was welcome to play there. The player looked the dealer in the eyes and said "Can't she just move over?" The dealer said no and that she can stay in the spot if she likes. The man walked away and did not sit in the open seat. Too bad for him the dealer did not make the lady move because he really wanted third base.
I was playing in a limit hold em game at the Bay 101 casino in San Jose CA. I raised it up with AQ and was called by Q3 and his pair of 3's on the flop beat my Ace high. The very next hand the same player folded when it was limped to him. The flop came 8 high and he complained to his neighbor that he had folded Q8 and he would have top pair. He called my raise with Q3 (I had been playing fairly tight) and refused to limp in the next hand with Q8.
I was playing in a No Limit Hold Em game and two players went all in on a Jack high board. The person who bet all in said "Do you have a jack?" The player who called nodded his head yes. The bettor said "so do I." The board ran out and neither player had a Jack. One had an underpair and one had a flush draw. This got a pretty good chuckle from all of the players. Even when all in they felt they had to lie!
I was playing in a No Limit Hold Em game and a player called a raise preflop. He then called a bet on the flop, turn and river. The board was A 10 6 6 8. He called all the way to the river which was a $30 bet. He had 22 and lost to the aggressor who had an Ace. The player with the 22 said that he made the call because he was "winning for the session."
More to come in future blogs. These guys never stop giving me material!
Disciplined Degenerate
Monday, June 25, 2012
One of the best plays I have ever made at a poker table
The other day I played one of the best hands I have ever played in a $1-2 No Limit game. Those who read my blog know that I am a pretty straightforward player. I play solid cards and don't get out of line or crazy often. That said I do bluff at times and will make a move if I feel it is the right play. Recently I played a hand that shocked many at the table, and even myself.
The hand started with effective stacks of about $360. I raised to $15 with JJ after several people limped in and I was in the big blind. The button called me and we saw a flop heads up. The player on the button is a player I have played with many times. He is a tough player in that he is very creative and is hard to put on a range sometimes. He mixes his play well.
The flop came A K 3 with two spades. I led out for $30. The button made it $100 to go after thinking for a few seconds. This is a hand that nine and a half times out of ten I fold. But I really felt like he was making a move on me. In addition to the "feel" that I had I also had some thoughts running through my head that told me his bet did not make sense. This player is fairly aggressive and not on the passive side. I doubted that he would limp in preflop on the button with most hands containing an Ace. He might limp with A3 but I felt he would even raise with 33. I thought their was a small chance he had K3 but like I said I just felt that he was making a move. He does mix up his game from time to time so his range is not confined to just a few hands. I had to go with my gut. I called the $70 and re-raised $120 more. He thought for about 10 seconds and then went all in for about $90 more. I stuck with my read (although I was beginning to wonder if I was wrong) and called. I was hoping to see a flush draw only or maybe a gutshot. My original read was more "dead on balls accurate" (tribute to the movie My Cousin Vinny) than I thought. He had 98 high with no spade. He was drawing dead to runner runner. I collected the large pot and felt about as good as I have at a poker table. He was shocked and could not believe the play I made. But he was also very complimentary and said he was impressed. I told him the same about his play. We both knew the other was not real strong and both made courageous plays. The difference was my starting hand was better. If we had another $250 each and he could have raised more than the $90 maybe it would have worked for him. This hand was the difference for me on the day and I booked a nice win after I was in an early hole in the session. That is a hand I won't soon forget.
Basketball is over and it is time to refocus my sports betting on baseball. Like basketball, this is my first year betting baseball on a serious note.
So far on the baseball season I am 16-18 and down 1.8 units. I would love it if I can just hang around .500 for the summer and have a shot at grinding out some profit until football season begins. Because once football begins it will get my "dead on balls" full attention!
Disciplined Degenerate
The hand started with effective stacks of about $360. I raised to $15 with JJ after several people limped in and I was in the big blind. The button called me and we saw a flop heads up. The player on the button is a player I have played with many times. He is a tough player in that he is very creative and is hard to put on a range sometimes. He mixes his play well.
The flop came A K 3 with two spades. I led out for $30. The button made it $100 to go after thinking for a few seconds. This is a hand that nine and a half times out of ten I fold. But I really felt like he was making a move on me. In addition to the "feel" that I had I also had some thoughts running through my head that told me his bet did not make sense. This player is fairly aggressive and not on the passive side. I doubted that he would limp in preflop on the button with most hands containing an Ace. He might limp with A3 but I felt he would even raise with 33. I thought their was a small chance he had K3 but like I said I just felt that he was making a move. He does mix up his game from time to time so his range is not confined to just a few hands. I had to go with my gut. I called the $70 and re-raised $120 more. He thought for about 10 seconds and then went all in for about $90 more. I stuck with my read (although I was beginning to wonder if I was wrong) and called. I was hoping to see a flush draw only or maybe a gutshot. My original read was more "dead on balls accurate" (tribute to the movie My Cousin Vinny) than I thought. He had 98 high with no spade. He was drawing dead to runner runner. I collected the large pot and felt about as good as I have at a poker table. He was shocked and could not believe the play I made. But he was also very complimentary and said he was impressed. I told him the same about his play. We both knew the other was not real strong and both made courageous plays. The difference was my starting hand was better. If we had another $250 each and he could have raised more than the $90 maybe it would have worked for him. This hand was the difference for me on the day and I booked a nice win after I was in an early hole in the session. That is a hand I won't soon forget.
Basketball is over and it is time to refocus my sports betting on baseball. Like basketball, this is my first year betting baseball on a serious note.
So far on the baseball season I am 16-18 and down 1.8 units. I would love it if I can just hang around .500 for the summer and have a shot at grinding out some profit until football season begins. Because once football begins it will get my "dead on balls" full attention!
Disciplined Degenerate
Thursday, June 14, 2012
Grinding and betting on anything
It has been a while since I blogged. Over the course of time I will try to blog anywhere from 2-5 times a week. Lately however I have become busy with many personal issues, and in addition nothing spectacular or interesting has happened at the tables or in any of my other gambling.
I have taken a few days off from poker but still managed to play 7 of the last 11 days. And I have been betting on basketball (and losing). But as I said nothing too interesting has happened and I had to take my cat to the Vet a couple of times this week and have been distracted and busy with caring for him. Without going into all the details he is going to be just fine. I am happy with that and ready to return to focusing my efforts on the daily grind.
Since there have not been any great stories lately I thought in this blog I would give you just a glimpse of all of the random things that I do bet on other than poker. All of the following are bets that I have made in the past week or two:
- Tennessee Georgia women's softball game. I won
- The drinking game Caps (like beer pong). We bet shots and cash. I lost and got drunk.
- Wheel of Fortune. Me and another poker player each picked a player for a must win bet. My contestant won!
- Me and another poker player each picked a player in a poker tournament that we were not playing in to last longer. I lost.
- World Series of Poker Fantasy League. My team is doing well one third of the way through the WSOP.
- Dot racing at the Oakland A's game. Pushed on two games.
- Fantasy Baseball at the Oakland A's game. Me and a buddy each picked 4 players from the game and won money for various stats. I lost a few bucks.
- I bet 50 cents to win $12,000 on a baseball parlay. I didn't win. Can you believe it!?
- At a Reno Mcdonald's I bet on the over under on how long it would take a cop to remove a passed out drunk with a friend. I lost.
- In Reno at a street fair I bet a friend in 3 blocks of the street fair that I would find a picture of Michael Jordan in one of the vendors booths. I did and won.
So as you can see I like to gamble on a lot of meaningless, arbitrary things. I rarely bet for big money on these types of things. It makes life fun and I suggest you try it.
It looks like I will not finish ahead for the season in basketball. I am very frustrated considering I was down 15 units back in the fall and came all the way back to get ahead about 4 units at one point flat betting. To now fall into the red with just weeks left in the season hurts. But, I am only down 6 units and when you consider how I started and the fact that I have bet about 220 games that is not too bad. This was my first year handicapping basketball and I definitely improved throughout the season. I also wonder if some of the bets I made in the playoffs were not the best opportunities and I was betting them due to lack of other options. Either way I enjoyed the challenge and I look forward to next season. I am also extremely excited that footabll preseason is only months away!
Disciplined Degenerate
I have taken a few days off from poker but still managed to play 7 of the last 11 days. And I have been betting on basketball (and losing). But as I said nothing too interesting has happened and I had to take my cat to the Vet a couple of times this week and have been distracted and busy with caring for him. Without going into all the details he is going to be just fine. I am happy with that and ready to return to focusing my efforts on the daily grind.
Since there have not been any great stories lately I thought in this blog I would give you just a glimpse of all of the random things that I do bet on other than poker. All of the following are bets that I have made in the past week or two:
- Tennessee Georgia women's softball game. I won
- The drinking game Caps (like beer pong). We bet shots and cash. I lost and got drunk.
- Wheel of Fortune. Me and another poker player each picked a player for a must win bet. My contestant won!
- Me and another poker player each picked a player in a poker tournament that we were not playing in to last longer. I lost.
- World Series of Poker Fantasy League. My team is doing well one third of the way through the WSOP.
- Dot racing at the Oakland A's game. Pushed on two games.
- Fantasy Baseball at the Oakland A's game. Me and a buddy each picked 4 players from the game and won money for various stats. I lost a few bucks.
- I bet 50 cents to win $12,000 on a baseball parlay. I didn't win. Can you believe it!?
- At a Reno Mcdonald's I bet on the over under on how long it would take a cop to remove a passed out drunk with a friend. I lost.
- In Reno at a street fair I bet a friend in 3 blocks of the street fair that I would find a picture of Michael Jordan in one of the vendors booths. I did and won.
So as you can see I like to gamble on a lot of meaningless, arbitrary things. I rarely bet for big money on these types of things. It makes life fun and I suggest you try it.
It looks like I will not finish ahead for the season in basketball. I am very frustrated considering I was down 15 units back in the fall and came all the way back to get ahead about 4 units at one point flat betting. To now fall into the red with just weeks left in the season hurts. But, I am only down 6 units and when you consider how I started and the fact that I have bet about 220 games that is not too bad. This was my first year handicapping basketball and I definitely improved throughout the season. I also wonder if some of the bets I made in the playoffs were not the best opportunities and I was betting them due to lack of other options. Either way I enjoyed the challenge and I look forward to next season. I am also extremely excited that footabll preseason is only months away!
Disciplined Degenerate
Sunday, June 3, 2012
Tilt claims another victim
I mentioned in a previous blog or two that I thought my winning streak would come to a vicious or brutal end. I thought it would end with some brutal bad beats or several terrible sessions in a row. It seems like in the past that is the way some of my winning streaks ended, but there is no real science behind my prediction. On Memorial Day I had the day off from work and took that chance to play some poker and managed to lose a $400+ pot getting it all in as a 96%-4% favorite. I managed to lose two buys ins ($400) and had my biggest losing session in six weeks. I took the day off on Tuesday after seeing a movie and then ended up taking Wednesday off as well. It was unsual for me to not play two days in a row, but I didn't mind the break and was ready to go on Thursday night. What would happen? Would the winning streak really be over or would I get back on the winning track?
Early on in the session I had 10 4 of clubs in the big blind and flopped a flush. Of course I was up against the nut flush and the guy played it well and I lost a big pot. Later I was in the big blind and had 9 6 and the flop came 9 9 2 and I was up against pocket deuces. Other than those two hands--that I never would have played was I not in the blind--I missed almost every flop and draw I had for hours. I ended up losing $450 and over two sessions I was down $850. The hot streak had officically ended. It ended with a bang. I lost $850 in two sessions and hardly won a pot.
I went home on Thursday night kind of depressed but not worried. It was only a matter of time before I had some rough patches and I have had far worse. That is why you need to have a proper bankroll and be able to put up with some lulls and bad beats. The worst downswing in $1-2 No Limit that I ever had was over $2000 so I could easily bounce back from a $850 downswing.
So I took Friday night off and went back to the table on Saturday. There was one particular player who was at the table Saturday who was on crazy tilt. He accidently exposed his hand before action was completed on the river and ended up getting bluffed off the pot. After that he was on tilt for hours and could not get control of himself. This player normally plays a tight, solid game and more often than not is a winner in the game. But he has the worst tilt in him that can cause him to lose months of winnings in a single day or weekend. He was also drinking. I was waiting to get involved in a pot with him. He has been gunning for me lately as well. Combined with the tilt I knew that if I put any money in the pot he would be going after me. One hand I had AQ and raised it up and sure enough he called and we saw a flop heads up. I made top two pair and won about $200 off of him and his 67 when he made one pair. A little bit later I saw a flop in an unraised pot with the same player and a few other players with A5 of clubs. The flop came AK5. The tilting player bet $12 and it got folded to me and I made it $32. He proceeded to push all in for about $400. He was on mad tilt at this point and I knew he wanted to get in a big pot with me. There were two diamonds on board so he could have a flush draw. He could have just an Ace and he could have 22 for all I knew. I knew I was probably going to call but I still took some time to think things over. Because it was a limped pot I could be pretty darn sure that he did not have AK. He might have 55 but that was very unlikely with the 5 in my hand. I decided that his most likely hand was K5 and just did not figure out a way that I could fold. I won't lie and say I was not thinking about how I had been running lately. I was up over $200 in the session and if I lost this pot I would be down nearly $200. But I just could not fold in this spot. I called and he turned over K3 of diamonds. He needed a King or a diamond. Somehow my hand--only a 60-40 favorite--held up. It was quite a relief after the river bricked. Just like that I was up over $600.
I played one more hand later on with the same player and my 66 beat his 10 5 for $100 in profit. I played four hands against the guy all night and won them all for over $700 in winnings.
I ended up going home even though he was still on tilt like crazy. I was tired and I was happy to book a win of over $700 after losing $850 in my prevous two sessions. At the time I left he was down $2500 in the game. A friend of mine texted me and said he was down $5000 at 6:30 AM the next morning and still playing. By noon he was down $7000. It is truly amazing what tilt can do, even to a good player when it gets a hold of him. He could play well for the next 6 months and not make back what he lost in just one night. Lack of self management has destroyed anything that his talent has got him in poker.
In the meantime I am very happy to lose $150 in this past week. I am confident and ready to get back on another winning streak!
Meanwhile in other gambling I am on a bit of a slump in basketball. I am down 2.5 units for the year at this point. I have the rest of the conference finals and the NBA finals to get ahead. If I can finish ahead even just one unit for the year I will be very happy with my results in my first year of handicapping basketball.
Disciplined Degenerate
Early on in the session I had 10 4 of clubs in the big blind and flopped a flush. Of course I was up against the nut flush and the guy played it well and I lost a big pot. Later I was in the big blind and had 9 6 and the flop came 9 9 2 and I was up against pocket deuces. Other than those two hands--that I never would have played was I not in the blind--I missed almost every flop and draw I had for hours. I ended up losing $450 and over two sessions I was down $850. The hot streak had officically ended. It ended with a bang. I lost $850 in two sessions and hardly won a pot.
I went home on Thursday night kind of depressed but not worried. It was only a matter of time before I had some rough patches and I have had far worse. That is why you need to have a proper bankroll and be able to put up with some lulls and bad beats. The worst downswing in $1-2 No Limit that I ever had was over $2000 so I could easily bounce back from a $850 downswing.
So I took Friday night off and went back to the table on Saturday. There was one particular player who was at the table Saturday who was on crazy tilt. He accidently exposed his hand before action was completed on the river and ended up getting bluffed off the pot. After that he was on tilt for hours and could not get control of himself. This player normally plays a tight, solid game and more often than not is a winner in the game. But he has the worst tilt in him that can cause him to lose months of winnings in a single day or weekend. He was also drinking. I was waiting to get involved in a pot with him. He has been gunning for me lately as well. Combined with the tilt I knew that if I put any money in the pot he would be going after me. One hand I had AQ and raised it up and sure enough he called and we saw a flop heads up. I made top two pair and won about $200 off of him and his 67 when he made one pair. A little bit later I saw a flop in an unraised pot with the same player and a few other players with A5 of clubs. The flop came AK5. The tilting player bet $12 and it got folded to me and I made it $32. He proceeded to push all in for about $400. He was on mad tilt at this point and I knew he wanted to get in a big pot with me. There were two diamonds on board so he could have a flush draw. He could have just an Ace and he could have 22 for all I knew. I knew I was probably going to call but I still took some time to think things over. Because it was a limped pot I could be pretty darn sure that he did not have AK. He might have 55 but that was very unlikely with the 5 in my hand. I decided that his most likely hand was K5 and just did not figure out a way that I could fold. I won't lie and say I was not thinking about how I had been running lately. I was up over $200 in the session and if I lost this pot I would be down nearly $200. But I just could not fold in this spot. I called and he turned over K3 of diamonds. He needed a King or a diamond. Somehow my hand--only a 60-40 favorite--held up. It was quite a relief after the river bricked. Just like that I was up over $600.
I played one more hand later on with the same player and my 66 beat his 10 5 for $100 in profit. I played four hands against the guy all night and won them all for over $700 in winnings.
I ended up going home even though he was still on tilt like crazy. I was tired and I was happy to book a win of over $700 after losing $850 in my prevous two sessions. At the time I left he was down $2500 in the game. A friend of mine texted me and said he was down $5000 at 6:30 AM the next morning and still playing. By noon he was down $7000. It is truly amazing what tilt can do, even to a good player when it gets a hold of him. He could play well for the next 6 months and not make back what he lost in just one night. Lack of self management has destroyed anything that his talent has got him in poker.
In the meantime I am very happy to lose $150 in this past week. I am confident and ready to get back on another winning streak!
Meanwhile in other gambling I am on a bit of a slump in basketball. I am down 2.5 units for the year at this point. I have the rest of the conference finals and the NBA finals to get ahead. If I can finish ahead even just one unit for the year I will be very happy with my results in my first year of handicapping basketball.
Disciplined Degenerate
Tuesday, May 29, 2012
Poker is gambling
You often here self righteous poker players say that poker is not gambling because it is a skill game. They are wrong. Gambling is anything where you are wagering money on something in which the outcome is not certain. The best poker players in the world, even when playing a table full of fish are gambling. I gambled with a fish on Memorial Day and I lost big time.
There is a player that I have been playing with for a while at my local poker club who is a below average player. I wouldn't call him a terrible player. When the deck hits him he maximizes his wins pretty well. But what helps him when he is winning is what crushes him when he loses. He just can't take his foot off the gas pedal. He can't fold when he has anything.
In the past few weeks he has been holding over me and I have been patiently waiting for him to step into the trap I like to call The Nuts. Yesterday he was winning and had a big stack. I had about $210 in front of me when he raised it to $12. I was on the button and peeked down at KK. I made it $60 to go. This is a pretty large raise, but I was playing the man. He was not folding a lot of his hands here so I wanted to create a big pot with him when I had him crushed, as I assumed that I did now. Sure enough he called and we saw a flop. The door card was a King to reveal a K 5 10 flop. He decided to lead out for $50. I had $160 remaining. I decided to just call and try to get the money in on the turn. I really didn't want to blow him off the hand if he had something like a A 10 or J 10. By calling the pot would probably be big enough for him that he couldn't justify a fold to himself on the turn or river if he put one more dollar in the pot. And don't say "You should protect your hand here." You don't protect your hand in cash games. That is a ridiculous fallacy. You either bluff or you bet for value. The only point where I want to protect a strong hand by blowing everyone out is in a tournament setting. In cash games, when you can rebuy and you are playing one long game that lasts years, you always want action when you have a strong hand (there are very few exceptions which are more related to bankroll management and meta game but they are the extreme exception). If you don't want action when you have the nuts you don't have the stomach for cash game poker. Anyone who tells you differently is wrong. I called and an Ace peeled off giving a K 10 5 A board. He checked and I put my last $110 in the pot. He called and showed AK. Wow, what a cooler. Maybe I used up all my bad cooler repellant the past 30 sessions or so because an Ace hit the river. That one stung. Especially against this guy who I had been waiting to get heads up and trap him when he overplayed a hand. As frustrating as it was I did not scream out or sulk or get too upset. I was more in shock than angry. But there was nothing I could do. Like I said, I never want him out of the hand anyway (after he hit the Ace on the turn I was still 96% to win the pot!!!) and the hands pretty much played themselves. If the hands were reversed, we get it all in also.
This hand shows one important thing. Poker is gambling. Even though I was a 98% favorite on the flop and a 96% favorite on the turn, it was a gamble. I was at risk and I lost. He was forced to put his money in as a 98-2 dog and he didn't even play the hand poorly. You can argue that he should have folded preflop--and maybe he should have against a tight player out of position--but you also can't say that he played this hand bad. This hand came down to the luck of the cards. We gambled for $420.
I ended up losing two buy ins ($400) for my biggest loss in six weeks and went home and called it a night. I don't feel bad about the way I played, it was just time to pay some bills. In any business there is expenses and overhead. For a professional poker player or an advantage gambler that is what bad beats and bad luck are. They are the cost of doing business. Without them you could never profit in the long run. Tonight after a movie I will be back in business at my poker room. Hopefully no more bills come due this week!
Disciplined Degenerate
There is a player that I have been playing with for a while at my local poker club who is a below average player. I wouldn't call him a terrible player. When the deck hits him he maximizes his wins pretty well. But what helps him when he is winning is what crushes him when he loses. He just can't take his foot off the gas pedal. He can't fold when he has anything.
In the past few weeks he has been holding over me and I have been patiently waiting for him to step into the trap I like to call The Nuts. Yesterday he was winning and had a big stack. I had about $210 in front of me when he raised it to $12. I was on the button and peeked down at KK. I made it $60 to go. This is a pretty large raise, but I was playing the man. He was not folding a lot of his hands here so I wanted to create a big pot with him when I had him crushed, as I assumed that I did now. Sure enough he called and we saw a flop. The door card was a King to reveal a K 5 10 flop. He decided to lead out for $50. I had $160 remaining. I decided to just call and try to get the money in on the turn. I really didn't want to blow him off the hand if he had something like a A 10 or J 10. By calling the pot would probably be big enough for him that he couldn't justify a fold to himself on the turn or river if he put one more dollar in the pot. And don't say "You should protect your hand here." You don't protect your hand in cash games. That is a ridiculous fallacy. You either bluff or you bet for value. The only point where I want to protect a strong hand by blowing everyone out is in a tournament setting. In cash games, when you can rebuy and you are playing one long game that lasts years, you always want action when you have a strong hand (there are very few exceptions which are more related to bankroll management and meta game but they are the extreme exception). If you don't want action when you have the nuts you don't have the stomach for cash game poker. Anyone who tells you differently is wrong. I called and an Ace peeled off giving a K 10 5 A board. He checked and I put my last $110 in the pot. He called and showed AK. Wow, what a cooler. Maybe I used up all my bad cooler repellant the past 30 sessions or so because an Ace hit the river. That one stung. Especially against this guy who I had been waiting to get heads up and trap him when he overplayed a hand. As frustrating as it was I did not scream out or sulk or get too upset. I was more in shock than angry. But there was nothing I could do. Like I said, I never want him out of the hand anyway (after he hit the Ace on the turn I was still 96% to win the pot!!!) and the hands pretty much played themselves. If the hands were reversed, we get it all in also.
This hand shows one important thing. Poker is gambling. Even though I was a 98% favorite on the flop and a 96% favorite on the turn, it was a gamble. I was at risk and I lost. He was forced to put his money in as a 98-2 dog and he didn't even play the hand poorly. You can argue that he should have folded preflop--and maybe he should have against a tight player out of position--but you also can't say that he played this hand bad. This hand came down to the luck of the cards. We gambled for $420.
I ended up losing two buy ins ($400) for my biggest loss in six weeks and went home and called it a night. I don't feel bad about the way I played, it was just time to pay some bills. In any business there is expenses and overhead. For a professional poker player or an advantage gambler that is what bad beats and bad luck are. They are the cost of doing business. Without them you could never profit in the long run. Tonight after a movie I will be back in business at my poker room. Hopefully no more bills come due this week!
Disciplined Degenerate
Wednesday, May 23, 2012
$500 pot in poker versus a $10 sports bet
So what is more frustrating to you--losing a $500 pot in poker on a bad beat or losing a $10 sports bet in the last second of a game due to bad luck? Believe it or not, losing the sports bet is more emotionally troubling to me. I care more about $500 than $10 but when I lose a sports bet in terrible, unlucky fashion I sometimes feel like I might not ever get that money back. In poker, I know I will get the money back. I have been playing for almost 9 years and I have always been a winner at poker. I know it is a long term game that I have an edge at. Despite some recent success in sports betting I am not necessarily a "winning sports bettor." It is too early to determine if I am that or not. When I make a pick that has the appearances of a good pick and lose in the last second due to bad luck or a fluke play, it is extremely aggravating.
Last night I had a bet on the under in the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers. The game, for almost the entire first three quarters was on pace to go under. Going into the fourth quarter they needed to score 51 points combined to go over the number. The most points scored in any of the the first three quarters was 46. This was by no means wrapped up or a lock going into the fourth quarter but it was looking good. Basically my pick was solid. The scoring and pace was one that was indicating that it would go under. I figure I was about 65-70% to win the bet going into the fourth. So what happened in the fourth quarter? An offensive explosion! Sixty five points! And in a game that was pretty much over (the game was a blowout) as well. I thought I had that working for me! Now I have had sports bets with much, much worse luck and beats than this, but I can't explain the frustration level that I had last night over this measly $10 loss! There is something so satisfying about correctly handicapping a game and profiting from it. You are using your mind and your wits to try to beat your opponent (The Sportsbook) in a game where they charge juice right off the top. So if you do beat them, there is an enormous sense of satisfaction. You feel smart. You feel sharp. When you lose, you feel like an idiot. And when you lose even though you made a good, smart bet and all indicators say that you are about to win, you feel pissed off! At least I do. I would actually rather be an idiot and handicap a game wrong and lose by a lot than pick the game right and get screwed by a bad bounce or unlucky break. Interestingly enough in poker it is the exact opposite. When I lose because I made a mistake, that hurts more than anything. When I lose from bad luck or a bad beat I don't mind. I played it correctly and if I keep playing that way I will win in the long run. Maybe what is bothering me is that I just might not be betting these games correctly? I have beaten football over two years and I am up a little bit over this entire basketball season so I would like to think I am. But only time will tell, like poker already has, if I am truly a sharp bettor or just another square lining the bookie's pockets.
Disciplined Degenerate
Last night I had a bet on the under in the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers. The game, for almost the entire first three quarters was on pace to go under. Going into the fourth quarter they needed to score 51 points combined to go over the number. The most points scored in any of the the first three quarters was 46. This was by no means wrapped up or a lock going into the fourth quarter but it was looking good. Basically my pick was solid. The scoring and pace was one that was indicating that it would go under. I figure I was about 65-70% to win the bet going into the fourth. So what happened in the fourth quarter? An offensive explosion! Sixty five points! And in a game that was pretty much over (the game was a blowout) as well. I thought I had that working for me! Now I have had sports bets with much, much worse luck and beats than this, but I can't explain the frustration level that I had last night over this measly $10 loss! There is something so satisfying about correctly handicapping a game and profiting from it. You are using your mind and your wits to try to beat your opponent (The Sportsbook) in a game where they charge juice right off the top. So if you do beat them, there is an enormous sense of satisfaction. You feel smart. You feel sharp. When you lose, you feel like an idiot. And when you lose even though you made a good, smart bet and all indicators say that you are about to win, you feel pissed off! At least I do. I would actually rather be an idiot and handicap a game wrong and lose by a lot than pick the game right and get screwed by a bad bounce or unlucky break. Interestingly enough in poker it is the exact opposite. When I lose because I made a mistake, that hurts more than anything. When I lose from bad luck or a bad beat I don't mind. I played it correctly and if I keep playing that way I will win in the long run. Maybe what is bothering me is that I just might not be betting these games correctly? I have beaten football over two years and I am up a little bit over this entire basketball season so I would like to think I am. But only time will tell, like poker already has, if I am truly a sharp bettor or just another square lining the bookie's pockets.
Disciplined Degenerate
Monday, May 21, 2012
Seven weeks of gambling in the books
Six weeks ago I set out to gamble for 365 days straight. I have gambled for 42 days straight days and here are some interesting facts and notes regarding the first six weeks.
-I have played poker 29 of the 42 days
-Of the 13 days I did not play poker I had a sports bet 12 of those days
-The one day that I did not have a sports bet or play poker I played online blackjack and won $7
-Of the 29 days of poker 24 of them have been winning days (one of the better streaks I have had in a while)
- I have made 29 basketball bets with a record of 16-12-1.
- I have made 27 baseball bets with a record of 12-15
-I have played in two home poker games and only one cardroom outside my normal room
I feel very good after six weeks and don't really feel like I have had to "get a bet in" or "make sure I gamble" before bed. It is kind of just part of my life. If I had not been doing this 365 day challenge I probably would have still made a bet about 37 or 38 of the 42 days. It certainly doesn't hurt that I have been winning. As mentioned I have won 24 out of 29 days at poker. That is very likely one of my best runs I have ever had at live poker. I have had periods of time where I won more money, but have not had many times in my life with so few losing sessions over six weeks. And of those five losing sessions, three of them were very small losses. It is has been a nice run.
Whenever I go on a hot streak in poker I always kind of expect it to end with a bang like a really bad beat or big loss. Last night appeared to be headed in that direction. I was playing in a very loose, aggressive, profitable game at my local club. The only problem was I just could not hit a flop or a draw to save my life. I was into the game for $600 in buy ins and down to my last $160 about five hours into the session. So I was down $440. Usually I don't let myself get stuck more than two buy ins ($400) in this game. I will just up and leave. However, this game was so juicy and profitable that I had to stay in the game. There was just too much opportunity. And like usual I was not on tilt. I was remaining patient and my confidence in poker is probably as high as it has ever been right now. I made the executive decision to stay in the game.
I had about $160 when the following hand came along. A very aggressive and loose player raised to $25 after their was a live $5 bet made. An even looser and more aggressive player (one of the craziest regulars at the club) made the call. I called with 88 and two more players behind me called. I was in a five handed pot with four loose, aggressive players who all had my $160 stack covered. As the dealer was preparing to turn the flop I was actually thinking in my head that I deserved to flop a big hand after how patient I had been in this session. Sure enough the poker gods blessed me with an 8 4 2 flop (rainbow). I had flopped the nuts! No matter what, even if I just took the pot now I would win over $100 on the hand which would be nice. But with these characters in the pot I was hoping for a big pot. I got my wish. The original raiser went all in and the crazy player after him called. The all in had set me all in. I pretended to think it over for 10 seconds and then called. Then the player behind me called! I am loving this spot! Yes I could lose and nothing is a sure thing but this is a big edge I have and this is what you dream of in No Limit Hold Em. Then the last player considered calling before actually folding 10 10. The turn was 3 and the crazy player said "I have a straight." It made me nervous a little bit but he was smiling wickedly and holding his cards like he was ready to muck and I was pretty sure he was messing with us. I just didn't want to see a big card on the river as I was pretty sure I was fading overpairs. An Ace hit the river which really scared me. It is hard to put someone on a 5 in this hand but with these guys nothing would surprise me. And of course AA from the original raiser was a possibility. But much to my delight the original raiser turned over JJ and the crazy player on my right mucked and the other player showed an 8 and I scooped a pot around $700.
So after hours of suffering with bad cards and missed draws my patience paid off and I was able to book a winning session. This session illustrates that in the long run if you play a solid game and do not tilt off your money patience is rewarded in poker. It also illustrates the importance of having a bankroll sufficient for the game you are playing in. Poker is a long run game and if you can stay in the game financially (bankroll) and emotionally (don't tilt) you can and will win. No matter how talented you are if you can't manage your bankroll and your emotions it is damn tough to win in the long run. This is why I believe that self management is as just as important if not more important than talent and poker fundamentals.
So my winning streak did not end with a bang. It continues. I have heard of people who have said they ran well for six months. I have heard and read stories of professional poker players who have had 40 straight winning sessions. So there is no reason it has to come to an end now. I am hoping I can keep it going for as long as possible. The gambling gods are indeed a fickle bunch. I will enjoy it while it lasts. And when it ends, I will try to play my A game. Because that is when true skill is required in poker--when you run bad. Anyone can flop sets and straights and win. But most are not capable of resisting tilt and losing the minimum when the cards treat them poorly. That has always been my specialty. When that time comes I will be ready to go to work.
Disciplined Degenerate
-I have played poker 29 of the 42 days
-Of the 13 days I did not play poker I had a sports bet 12 of those days
-The one day that I did not have a sports bet or play poker I played online blackjack and won $7
-Of the 29 days of poker 24 of them have been winning days (one of the better streaks I have had in a while)
- I have made 29 basketball bets with a record of 16-12-1.
- I have made 27 baseball bets with a record of 12-15
-I have played in two home poker games and only one cardroom outside my normal room
I feel very good after six weeks and don't really feel like I have had to "get a bet in" or "make sure I gamble" before bed. It is kind of just part of my life. If I had not been doing this 365 day challenge I probably would have still made a bet about 37 or 38 of the 42 days. It certainly doesn't hurt that I have been winning. As mentioned I have won 24 out of 29 days at poker. That is very likely one of my best runs I have ever had at live poker. I have had periods of time where I won more money, but have not had many times in my life with so few losing sessions over six weeks. And of those five losing sessions, three of them were very small losses. It is has been a nice run.
Whenever I go on a hot streak in poker I always kind of expect it to end with a bang like a really bad beat or big loss. Last night appeared to be headed in that direction. I was playing in a very loose, aggressive, profitable game at my local club. The only problem was I just could not hit a flop or a draw to save my life. I was into the game for $600 in buy ins and down to my last $160 about five hours into the session. So I was down $440. Usually I don't let myself get stuck more than two buy ins ($400) in this game. I will just up and leave. However, this game was so juicy and profitable that I had to stay in the game. There was just too much opportunity. And like usual I was not on tilt. I was remaining patient and my confidence in poker is probably as high as it has ever been right now. I made the executive decision to stay in the game.
I had about $160 when the following hand came along. A very aggressive and loose player raised to $25 after their was a live $5 bet made. An even looser and more aggressive player (one of the craziest regulars at the club) made the call. I called with 88 and two more players behind me called. I was in a five handed pot with four loose, aggressive players who all had my $160 stack covered. As the dealer was preparing to turn the flop I was actually thinking in my head that I deserved to flop a big hand after how patient I had been in this session. Sure enough the poker gods blessed me with an 8 4 2 flop (rainbow). I had flopped the nuts! No matter what, even if I just took the pot now I would win over $100 on the hand which would be nice. But with these characters in the pot I was hoping for a big pot. I got my wish. The original raiser went all in and the crazy player after him called. The all in had set me all in. I pretended to think it over for 10 seconds and then called. Then the player behind me called! I am loving this spot! Yes I could lose and nothing is a sure thing but this is a big edge I have and this is what you dream of in No Limit Hold Em. Then the last player considered calling before actually folding 10 10. The turn was 3 and the crazy player said "I have a straight." It made me nervous a little bit but he was smiling wickedly and holding his cards like he was ready to muck and I was pretty sure he was messing with us. I just didn't want to see a big card on the river as I was pretty sure I was fading overpairs. An Ace hit the river which really scared me. It is hard to put someone on a 5 in this hand but with these guys nothing would surprise me. And of course AA from the original raiser was a possibility. But much to my delight the original raiser turned over JJ and the crazy player on my right mucked and the other player showed an 8 and I scooped a pot around $700.
So after hours of suffering with bad cards and missed draws my patience paid off and I was able to book a winning session. This session illustrates that in the long run if you play a solid game and do not tilt off your money patience is rewarded in poker. It also illustrates the importance of having a bankroll sufficient for the game you are playing in. Poker is a long run game and if you can stay in the game financially (bankroll) and emotionally (don't tilt) you can and will win. No matter how talented you are if you can't manage your bankroll and your emotions it is damn tough to win in the long run. This is why I believe that self management is as just as important if not more important than talent and poker fundamentals.
So my winning streak did not end with a bang. It continues. I have heard of people who have said they ran well for six months. I have heard and read stories of professional poker players who have had 40 straight winning sessions. So there is no reason it has to come to an end now. I am hoping I can keep it going for as long as possible. The gambling gods are indeed a fickle bunch. I will enjoy it while it lasts. And when it ends, I will try to play my A game. Because that is when true skill is required in poker--when you run bad. Anyone can flop sets and straights and win. But most are not capable of resisting tilt and losing the minimum when the cards treat them poorly. That has always been my specialty. When that time comes I will be ready to go to work.
Disciplined Degenerate
Tuesday, May 15, 2012
Bluffs, big lay downs, and faith based sports fans
Some things have happened the last few days in my gambling adventures that really teach a good lesson about successful gambling. It may seem overly simple, but if you know the person you are betting with well, you will probably figure out a way to beat him. You may say well they can do the same to you. That is true, but they don't usually do it. Most gamblers lose. They don't think about the things that it takes to be a winner. And even if they do, they probably lack the discipline to stick to the methods needed to win. Here are three examples of knowing your man means knowing profit:
Example 1:
I was playing in a seven handed poker game the other night with several regulars at my home poker club. One of the regulars playing also works there. I have known this guy for years and he is a real nice guy but he is not the best poker player around. He gives away a lot and has several betting patterns and even some physical tells that are pretty easy to read. I was in the big blind with KQs and he limped in for $2 along with three other players. It is no guarantee I had the best hand in the big blind but with my reputation (giving me good fold equity post flop and pre flop) and the fact that I felt I was significantly better than my opponents I justified to myself raising even while out of position. I made it $13 more in the BB. The regular, we will call him Gabe, called. At this point in the game Gabe was stuck about $800 on the day and I could tell by his play and behavior he was willing to gamble in some spots we would not have otherwise in an attempt to try to "get unstuck." You could count on a loose call preflop. We saw a flop heads up. It came AAJ with one spade, which was my suited hand. I checked and Gabe fired $20. I called fairly quickly. In addition to the Broadway draw and backdoor royal flush draw, I had Gabe's number here. It was possible, but extremely unlikely he had an Ace. The way he was playing, he would have raised it up with almost every Ace. He could have a Jack, he could have a pocket pair, but he couldn't win this hand. I knew I would get him. I called on the flop with the intention of making a move on a later street, even if I missed my draw. I was selling an Ace in my hand by check calling as well. The turn was an 8 and I checked and he bet $25. I moved all in for about $125 total. Gabe showed me J8 and folded almost instantly. As I have said in previous blogs, I don't make these big moves and bluffs often. I am given a lot of credit by my fellow regulars and they don't often get to see my cards when I do make these bluffs. I knew the man, I knew the situation, and I won the money.
Example 2:
Last night I was playing at the same club, again with many regulars and I had QQ in the small blind. Several people limped in for $2 and a straight forward, tight playing player made it $7 to go in the cutoff position. The button called and there was a good $15 in dead money out there that I decided would look good in my stack and I made it $34 to go (I started the hand with $190 and the cutoff player had me covered). It got back around to him after everyone else folded and he made it $75 more to go. I have played with this man many times and aside from when he is drunk or on tilt he plays good hands only, and will be bluffing here about 5% of the time. And maybe even less against me as he has laid down some big hands against me and thinks I only play the nuts. When first thinking about it I almost folded immediately without thinking much. But one thing bothered me. What bothered me was the fact that he only made it $7 to go preflop. This player plays very tight and usually only raised with premium hands, and when he does, often bets strong. A $7 raise preflop in this club is very small. It is usually what people do with KQs or J10s or 66 trying to build a pot. That made me 25% sure I had the best hand rather than 5% sure. But even more unbelievable to me was that he would make a move on me here when he is winning, sober, and clear minded. He has to put me on a big hand. I took quite a bit of time to decide what to do. I was basically making a $150 decision, not just $75. If I called the $75 my whole stack was going in basically. Watching him he felt very comfortable and I got the feeling he was really strong. After long deliberation I laid the hand down. In the following moments everyone at the table tried to figure out what I had folded. When someone theorized that I had KK the guy who I had played the pot with said "I am pretty certain he did not have Kings." This makes me believe that he had KK and I made the right laydown. Maybe I was bluffed but I feel pretty good about laying down QQ for maybe the 5th time in my life preflop. If it is true that he had KK I actually made about $120 on that hand. If I am a four to one underdog there I lose 80% of that $150 by playing the hand (I would lose 4 out of 5 times, hence 4/5ths of my money). This would be another situation where knowing the man made me money. I will never know for sure but I am 90% sure I made the right fold.
Example 3:
This is on a real small level but it is something that you can use to make money sometime and maybe sting your buddies a little bit. I have a friend who is a LA Lakers fan. He is what I call a faith based fan. A faith based fan has faith in his team because it is his team and he wants to believe. It is not based on factual and statistical analysis and good sports handicapping. Being a Laker fan that is faith based is even a bigger deal as they have historically had tremendous success. This friend of mine was on cloud nine after the Lakers squeaked by the Nuggets in game 7 after losing in ugly fashion in game 5 and 6. They advanced to the next round where the juggernaut Oklahoma City Thunder wait. The first thing my buddy did was talk about how the Lake Show will take it to OKC. To some people this is just silly or cocky talk. To a gambler like me, it is opportunity. Long story kind of shorter this friend agreed to bet me straight up on the result of the series. He did not ask for a handicap or odds. That would be admitting that his team needs it. And no faith based fan will admit that. The line in Vegas on this series has the Thunder as between a three and a half to four to one favorite for the series. I got the bet at even money. That is more than being on the sharp side of a line. That is stealing! Game one last night displayed this well as the Thunder lead by thirty points at one point in the second half. The bet is not large. The bet is only $20. This man is a friend of mine and we wanted to keep it friendly. But the lesson here is a big one for gamblers - serious gamblers and small gamblers alike: If you can bet against ego you will always be getting the best of it. Ego crushes poker players and it crushes sports bettors. If you have faith in your team no matter what you don't need to bet on them also. You probably aren't getting the best of it. Last year I had another friend who is a Seahawks fan and he bet me $50 that they would win a playoff game if I laid him two to one. If I laid him two to one that they would make the playoffs he would have likely been getting the worst of it. I had that bet won by about week 7.
These stories tell something about gambling. They tell you that you can be a winner if you are a "Student of human moves." Paul Newman talked about this in the film Color of Money. If you can be a student of the people around you and learn their biases, their desires and their weakness you can profit from their mistakes. This may sound predatory and cutthroat, but that is the nature of gambling sometimes. It is no different in the business world. Usually if your competitor does less business you will do more business. Know your man, know your business and you will know profit.
Disciplined Degenerate
Example 1:
I was playing in a seven handed poker game the other night with several regulars at my home poker club. One of the regulars playing also works there. I have known this guy for years and he is a real nice guy but he is not the best poker player around. He gives away a lot and has several betting patterns and even some physical tells that are pretty easy to read. I was in the big blind with KQs and he limped in for $2 along with three other players. It is no guarantee I had the best hand in the big blind but with my reputation (giving me good fold equity post flop and pre flop) and the fact that I felt I was significantly better than my opponents I justified to myself raising even while out of position. I made it $13 more in the BB. The regular, we will call him Gabe, called. At this point in the game Gabe was stuck about $800 on the day and I could tell by his play and behavior he was willing to gamble in some spots we would not have otherwise in an attempt to try to "get unstuck." You could count on a loose call preflop. We saw a flop heads up. It came AAJ with one spade, which was my suited hand. I checked and Gabe fired $20. I called fairly quickly. In addition to the Broadway draw and backdoor royal flush draw, I had Gabe's number here. It was possible, but extremely unlikely he had an Ace. The way he was playing, he would have raised it up with almost every Ace. He could have a Jack, he could have a pocket pair, but he couldn't win this hand. I knew I would get him. I called on the flop with the intention of making a move on a later street, even if I missed my draw. I was selling an Ace in my hand by check calling as well. The turn was an 8 and I checked and he bet $25. I moved all in for about $125 total. Gabe showed me J8 and folded almost instantly. As I have said in previous blogs, I don't make these big moves and bluffs often. I am given a lot of credit by my fellow regulars and they don't often get to see my cards when I do make these bluffs. I knew the man, I knew the situation, and I won the money.
Example 2:
Last night I was playing at the same club, again with many regulars and I had QQ in the small blind. Several people limped in for $2 and a straight forward, tight playing player made it $7 to go in the cutoff position. The button called and there was a good $15 in dead money out there that I decided would look good in my stack and I made it $34 to go (I started the hand with $190 and the cutoff player had me covered). It got back around to him after everyone else folded and he made it $75 more to go. I have played with this man many times and aside from when he is drunk or on tilt he plays good hands only, and will be bluffing here about 5% of the time. And maybe even less against me as he has laid down some big hands against me and thinks I only play the nuts. When first thinking about it I almost folded immediately without thinking much. But one thing bothered me. What bothered me was the fact that he only made it $7 to go preflop. This player plays very tight and usually only raised with premium hands, and when he does, often bets strong. A $7 raise preflop in this club is very small. It is usually what people do with KQs or J10s or 66 trying to build a pot. That made me 25% sure I had the best hand rather than 5% sure. But even more unbelievable to me was that he would make a move on me here when he is winning, sober, and clear minded. He has to put me on a big hand. I took quite a bit of time to decide what to do. I was basically making a $150 decision, not just $75. If I called the $75 my whole stack was going in basically. Watching him he felt very comfortable and I got the feeling he was really strong. After long deliberation I laid the hand down. In the following moments everyone at the table tried to figure out what I had folded. When someone theorized that I had KK the guy who I had played the pot with said "I am pretty certain he did not have Kings." This makes me believe that he had KK and I made the right laydown. Maybe I was bluffed but I feel pretty good about laying down QQ for maybe the 5th time in my life preflop. If it is true that he had KK I actually made about $120 on that hand. If I am a four to one underdog there I lose 80% of that $150 by playing the hand (I would lose 4 out of 5 times, hence 4/5ths of my money). This would be another situation where knowing the man made me money. I will never know for sure but I am 90% sure I made the right fold.
Example 3:
This is on a real small level but it is something that you can use to make money sometime and maybe sting your buddies a little bit. I have a friend who is a LA Lakers fan. He is what I call a faith based fan. A faith based fan has faith in his team because it is his team and he wants to believe. It is not based on factual and statistical analysis and good sports handicapping. Being a Laker fan that is faith based is even a bigger deal as they have historically had tremendous success. This friend of mine was on cloud nine after the Lakers squeaked by the Nuggets in game 7 after losing in ugly fashion in game 5 and 6. They advanced to the next round where the juggernaut Oklahoma City Thunder wait. The first thing my buddy did was talk about how the Lake Show will take it to OKC. To some people this is just silly or cocky talk. To a gambler like me, it is opportunity. Long story kind of shorter this friend agreed to bet me straight up on the result of the series. He did not ask for a handicap or odds. That would be admitting that his team needs it. And no faith based fan will admit that. The line in Vegas on this series has the Thunder as between a three and a half to four to one favorite for the series. I got the bet at even money. That is more than being on the sharp side of a line. That is stealing! Game one last night displayed this well as the Thunder lead by thirty points at one point in the second half. The bet is not large. The bet is only $20. This man is a friend of mine and we wanted to keep it friendly. But the lesson here is a big one for gamblers - serious gamblers and small gamblers alike: If you can bet against ego you will always be getting the best of it. Ego crushes poker players and it crushes sports bettors. If you have faith in your team no matter what you don't need to bet on them also. You probably aren't getting the best of it. Last year I had another friend who is a Seahawks fan and he bet me $50 that they would win a playoff game if I laid him two to one. If I laid him two to one that they would make the playoffs he would have likely been getting the worst of it. I had that bet won by about week 7.
These stories tell something about gambling. They tell you that you can be a winner if you are a "Student of human moves." Paul Newman talked about this in the film Color of Money. If you can be a student of the people around you and learn their biases, their desires and their weakness you can profit from their mistakes. This may sound predatory and cutthroat, but that is the nature of gambling sometimes. It is no different in the business world. Usually if your competitor does less business you will do more business. Know your man, know your business and you will know profit.
Disciplined Degenerate
Friday, May 11, 2012
The things that gamblers say
It always amazes me how truly stupid gamblers can be. Some of the things you here at a poker table or in a casino can be amazing. For example, the other night I heard someone say that if you take the Aces out of the deck in Blackjack that it favors the player. I tried to explain to this self proclaiming card counter why he is wrong and he just did not get it. This is one reason that casinos should not fear card counters at the table. Even the counters make big mistakes and hurt any chance of an edge they can get.
I also recently heard someone say that they thought the cash games in Las Vegas were tough at $2/5 and above. Maybe when you are playing $5/10 and above there is a little truth to it but this person either doesn't know what a good game is or he just has not played enough in Vegas. I have played in some incredibly soft, juicy $2/5 games in Las Vegas. If you game select well you can find a good one for sure.
Yesterday when watching the Hawks and Celtics game it was amazing to me how many players at the poker table knew exactly what the teams should be doing strategically in the final moments of the game. And then when the teams did something differently they would all say something like "What a stupid play," or "What are they thinking?" Now I am sure all of us are guilty of this at one time or another while watching sports but it just amazes me sometimes how people with so little knowledge of a game think they know so much. I guess the slobs at the poker table know more than the coaches and players who are paid millions?
I obviously don't know very much about basketball because I am on a little losing streak. I have lost four out of five in the NBA. I had a tough loss when the Jazz covered against the Spurs with two seconds left and then the other night I had the over in the Clippers Grizzlies game and the two teams proceeded to score about 40 points combined in the final 15 minutes to go under by a few buckets. But that is the nature of the game in sports betting. It is very streaky. I have had some bad luck this year and some losing streaks but it seems like some of my best winning streaks followed some cold spells. Tonight I am hoping to right the ship in the NBA. I am on the Clippers + 2 against the Grizzlies. The reason the Clips are two point dogs despite being at home is the injury status of Paul and Griffin. But my study indicates to me that both of these guys will play. The Clippers fans will be fired up and I think they have a good chance to close it out on their home floor. And I don't see them losing by a lot. So I like my bet there. I am also trying to end a three game losing streak in baseball. I am 15-17 on the year in MLB and down 1.5 units. I am taking it slow and letting the season develop more and will increase my action when basketball ends. But tonight I like the Giants and I am on them -116 against the D-backs.
Poker has been void of significant results lately. Because of the move and some personal matters that I have been busy with I have not played a whole lot. I have booked some small wins though and have not had any real losses. I am hoping to get some good hours in at the table this weekend.
Disciplined Degenerate
I also recently heard someone say that they thought the cash games in Las Vegas were tough at $2/5 and above. Maybe when you are playing $5/10 and above there is a little truth to it but this person either doesn't know what a good game is or he just has not played enough in Vegas. I have played in some incredibly soft, juicy $2/5 games in Las Vegas. If you game select well you can find a good one for sure.
Yesterday when watching the Hawks and Celtics game it was amazing to me how many players at the poker table knew exactly what the teams should be doing strategically in the final moments of the game. And then when the teams did something differently they would all say something like "What a stupid play," or "What are they thinking?" Now I am sure all of us are guilty of this at one time or another while watching sports but it just amazes me sometimes how people with so little knowledge of a game think they know so much. I guess the slobs at the poker table know more than the coaches and players who are paid millions?
I obviously don't know very much about basketball because I am on a little losing streak. I have lost four out of five in the NBA. I had a tough loss when the Jazz covered against the Spurs with two seconds left and then the other night I had the over in the Clippers Grizzlies game and the two teams proceeded to score about 40 points combined in the final 15 minutes to go under by a few buckets. But that is the nature of the game in sports betting. It is very streaky. I have had some bad luck this year and some losing streaks but it seems like some of my best winning streaks followed some cold spells. Tonight I am hoping to right the ship in the NBA. I am on the Clippers + 2 against the Grizzlies. The reason the Clips are two point dogs despite being at home is the injury status of Paul and Griffin. But my study indicates to me that both of these guys will play. The Clippers fans will be fired up and I think they have a good chance to close it out on their home floor. And I don't see them losing by a lot. So I like my bet there. I am also trying to end a three game losing streak in baseball. I am 15-17 on the year in MLB and down 1.5 units. I am taking it slow and letting the season develop more and will increase my action when basketball ends. But tonight I like the Giants and I am on them -116 against the D-backs.
Poker has been void of significant results lately. Because of the move and some personal matters that I have been busy with I have not played a whole lot. I have booked some small wins though and have not had any real losses. I am hoping to get some good hours in at the table this weekend.
Disciplined Degenerate
Tuesday, May 8, 2012
Moving, online poker, and sports parlays with ashtray change
It has been a busy few days. I spent all day Friday and Saturday moving into a newer, nicer, bigger apartment in my apartment complex. I am all moved in and set up and I am very happy with the place.
I have managed to stay in action everyday and keep the 365 day quest going, but it has been pretty minimal. On Friday I wanted to bet Atlanta +8 against Boston and in the chaos of moving I did not get my bet placed in time. I needed to get a bet down on someone since I would not be playing poker so I bet one unit on the Lakers +3 against the Nuggets and of course I lost. The night before I was planning on betting Atlanta and I am so mad at myself for not locking the bet in. The Hawks covered and the Lakers did not. That is a 2.1 unit swing due to my forgetfulness.
On Saturday I made a small bet on Union Rags in the Kentucky Derby (and managed to forget to watch the race, caught up in the move) and then made a bet on the Spurs -5.5 against the Jazz which I won.
On Sunday I finally had some time to get to the poker room and played three hours of live poker and broke about even after three hours of play.
And then yesterday I bet the Spurs again against the Jazz, trying to ride the San Antonio wave of covering spreads. Going into last night they are 37-10 ATS in their last 47. Runs like that against the spread just don't happen often. Of course the Jazz made a layup with 2 seconds left to make the final score a 6 point deficit and I was laying 8. Not a great couple of days for basketball. I am down a couple of units the last few days and back to even on the year. Still plenty of games left, and hopefully the Spurs keep up the hot streak because I plan on backing them some more.
Last night I did something that I have not done in over a year. I played online poker...for real money. It was pretty damn cool. I signed up on a website that has a sportsbook that I have been wanting to join for a while. They have real good juice and they have real small minimum wager requirements. What I like about this is what you can do with parlays. I normally don't like to bet parlays. They are impossible to beat as the odds you are paid are not true or close to it. However, they can be fun. And they can be low risk. This site that I signed up for allows 50 cent parlays. So today I have a 50 cent parlay on all 15 favorites in MLB and if they all win I collect $2100. Not bad for risking nothing more than you might find in your car ashtray or sofa cushions!
The sportsbook and online poker accounts are linked and so last night I played my first online poker for real money since Black Friday. Due to the instability and uncertainty of these websites that are allowing Americans to play poker I will never risk having big money in one of these accounts. This sign up is simply for me to make some fun, cheap exotic bets in sports and to play some low stakes poker in the comfort of my home when I don't want to go out or have time to go to the poker room. Last night I played about 200 hands of No Limit Poker and after getting stuck one buy in, I got just shy of even before bed. It felt good to play online. I prefer live poker and with the nature of the industry right now I won't make any real significant money online (outside of a large field tourney score perhaps) but it is a nice option. There is nothing like sitting on your couch and watching a game or a movie and playing a couple of tables on your laptop. Or if you wake up and 2:00 am and can't sleep it is always nice to know there is a game going online and you can jump on and play a few hands. It is also a great way for me to practice elements of poker that I don't play much of such as short handed No Limit or other poker games like Omaha and Stud. And there is nothing quite so fun as the heads up Sit and Go. And you won't find that in many live poker rooms. It is just one more way for me to keep my game sharp and have a little fun.
Tonight I will head back to the poker room and get back to the grind. April was a good month and I am ready to get the month of May cranking!
Disciplined Degenerate
I have managed to stay in action everyday and keep the 365 day quest going, but it has been pretty minimal. On Friday I wanted to bet Atlanta +8 against Boston and in the chaos of moving I did not get my bet placed in time. I needed to get a bet down on someone since I would not be playing poker so I bet one unit on the Lakers +3 against the Nuggets and of course I lost. The night before I was planning on betting Atlanta and I am so mad at myself for not locking the bet in. The Hawks covered and the Lakers did not. That is a 2.1 unit swing due to my forgetfulness.
On Saturday I made a small bet on Union Rags in the Kentucky Derby (and managed to forget to watch the race, caught up in the move) and then made a bet on the Spurs -5.5 against the Jazz which I won.
On Sunday I finally had some time to get to the poker room and played three hours of live poker and broke about even after three hours of play.
And then yesterday I bet the Spurs again against the Jazz, trying to ride the San Antonio wave of covering spreads. Going into last night they are 37-10 ATS in their last 47. Runs like that against the spread just don't happen often. Of course the Jazz made a layup with 2 seconds left to make the final score a 6 point deficit and I was laying 8. Not a great couple of days for basketball. I am down a couple of units the last few days and back to even on the year. Still plenty of games left, and hopefully the Spurs keep up the hot streak because I plan on backing them some more.
Last night I did something that I have not done in over a year. I played online poker...for real money. It was pretty damn cool. I signed up on a website that has a sportsbook that I have been wanting to join for a while. They have real good juice and they have real small minimum wager requirements. What I like about this is what you can do with parlays. I normally don't like to bet parlays. They are impossible to beat as the odds you are paid are not true or close to it. However, they can be fun. And they can be low risk. This site that I signed up for allows 50 cent parlays. So today I have a 50 cent parlay on all 15 favorites in MLB and if they all win I collect $2100. Not bad for risking nothing more than you might find in your car ashtray or sofa cushions!
The sportsbook and online poker accounts are linked and so last night I played my first online poker for real money since Black Friday. Due to the instability and uncertainty of these websites that are allowing Americans to play poker I will never risk having big money in one of these accounts. This sign up is simply for me to make some fun, cheap exotic bets in sports and to play some low stakes poker in the comfort of my home when I don't want to go out or have time to go to the poker room. Last night I played about 200 hands of No Limit Poker and after getting stuck one buy in, I got just shy of even before bed. It felt good to play online. I prefer live poker and with the nature of the industry right now I won't make any real significant money online (outside of a large field tourney score perhaps) but it is a nice option. There is nothing like sitting on your couch and watching a game or a movie and playing a couple of tables on your laptop. Or if you wake up and 2:00 am and can't sleep it is always nice to know there is a game going online and you can jump on and play a few hands. It is also a great way for me to practice elements of poker that I don't play much of such as short handed No Limit or other poker games like Omaha and Stud. And there is nothing quite so fun as the heads up Sit and Go. And you won't find that in many live poker rooms. It is just one more way for me to keep my game sharp and have a little fun.
Tonight I will head back to the poker room and get back to the grind. April was a good month and I am ready to get the month of May cranking!
Disciplined Degenerate
Thursday, May 3, 2012
KK no good!
I played poker last night and was down, then up and finished down again. It was a small loss, only $40 but when you were up $150 at one point is always frustrating to go home a loser.
I flopped a set of 8's early in the night and won some other small pots to get the profit, but then had some misfortune later on. I had some nice hands snapped off and then I had KK and ran into AA. That is the nightmare situation in No Limit Hold Em but fortunately I got away from it only losing about $100 (me an my opponent both had $300). It could have been a lot worse. But my opponent played them pretty slow and the board was bad enough for me to get away from the KK cheaply.
My last blog was discussing how well I have been doing lately at basketball betting. So you had to know right after writing that blog I would go 0-2 the next night! That is what I did last night. One was a half a point loss (had the Clippers +6.5 and they lost by 7) and was a tough one to swallow. But you get used to the highs and lows and have to stay the course. Tonight I am on the Miami Heat -5 against the Knickerbockers of New York.
I will probably play a few hours of poker tonight but it is possible Friday and Saturday will be light gambling days, with just a few sports bets and maybe no poker. I am moving on Saturday and Friday I am taking the day off from work to pack and get ready. I am sure I will find a baseball or basketball game to bet on though. I will keep you posted.
Disciplined Degenerate
I flopped a set of 8's early in the night and won some other small pots to get the profit, but then had some misfortune later on. I had some nice hands snapped off and then I had KK and ran into AA. That is the nightmare situation in No Limit Hold Em but fortunately I got away from it only losing about $100 (me an my opponent both had $300). It could have been a lot worse. But my opponent played them pretty slow and the board was bad enough for me to get away from the KK cheaply.
My last blog was discussing how well I have been doing lately at basketball betting. So you had to know right after writing that blog I would go 0-2 the next night! That is what I did last night. One was a half a point loss (had the Clippers +6.5 and they lost by 7) and was a tough one to swallow. But you get used to the highs and lows and have to stay the course. Tonight I am on the Miami Heat -5 against the Knickerbockers of New York.
I will probably play a few hours of poker tonight but it is possible Friday and Saturday will be light gambling days, with just a few sports bets and maybe no poker. I am moving on Saturday and Friday I am taking the day off from work to pack and get ready. I am sure I will find a baseball or basketball game to bet on though. I will keep you posted.
Disciplined Degenerate
Tuesday, May 1, 2012
Beating the spread is sweet
This past year I beat the spread in NFL and NCAA football (just barely) and I also beat it (for a nice win) in 2010. Over a two year period and over hundreds of bets I beat the books at football! That is only something that can be said by professionals, sharps, and people who run lucky for the most part. Did I run lucky? Maybe. However, I flat bet at the NFL and NCAA football. That means I bet one unit on most every game. Over the past two seasons of football, which totals approx 350 bets, I would estimate that 315 of them were bets of one unit. That means that I did not beat football simply cause I was lucky and won one bet that was 40 units. If a player bets one unit for 40 games and loses them all and then wins a 41 unit bet in game 41 technically he would be beating the game. And he would not be considered a good sports bettor. What I am trying to demonstrate is that is not what I did. I grinded out a profit. Ninety percent or more of my bets were one unit and of the 10% that were not, almost all were two units. I may have bet two or three games in two seasons that were over two units, and none were over five. So I don't feel like I "ran lucky." Over a decent (but admittedly not huge) sample I have beat the books. I beat the juice. It feels pretty good. Maybe I am lucky. Maybe I am better than the average bettor. Maybe if I puts serious, hardcore work into it I could make real good money. For me, it just feels real good to win at something that so few people can do.
So when the NCAA and NBA basketball seasons began I thought, "What the heck, lets try to beat the books at basketball." I probably actually know more about the game of basketball than any other sport. I used to play it religiously, and even had some moderate success as a player in high school. But I had never tried to handicap basketball seriously until this season. Things got off to a real rough start! Shortly into the season I was 20-32 betting sides and totals in basketball. I was buried approximately 15 units. At that time I made a change in my handicapping style that relies tremendously on statistical analysis of line movement and team trends that put player and match up analysis on the back burner (though not ignored). I dug deeper into stats than ever before and began a new "system" so to speak. I got hardcore, even looking at historical trends of referees on the floor in that nights game. What has happened could be explained away as luck or random variance, but since then I am 77-57 against the spread. I have been flat betting for every game accept eight games where I bet two units (I am 6-2 in those 8 games). Overall, against the spread and throwing in a few teasers these are my results up to date:
Spread 97-89 (2 unit bets 6-2) +4.65 units
Teasers 1-3 -2.3 units
Overall 98-92 +2.35 units
Considering how I started--in a 15 unit hole--and this is the first year I have ever handicapped basketball, and I work a full time job, and play live poker 15-20 hours a week, I am so proud of this accomplishment. I didn't play poker last night but I watched in satisfaction as the OKC-Dallas game went over the total to put me 2.35 units ahead for the season. I could be a cheapskate and not bet another game this year just to say I beat the spread for a year (and it would be legitimate) but I love the action and the challenge so much that I will continue through the playoffs and NBA finals. There will probably be another 15-25 bets this season for me to go in the red or stay in the black. I can't wait to find out what happens!
Disciplined Degenerate
So when the NCAA and NBA basketball seasons began I thought, "What the heck, lets try to beat the books at basketball." I probably actually know more about the game of basketball than any other sport. I used to play it religiously, and even had some moderate success as a player in high school. But I had never tried to handicap basketball seriously until this season. Things got off to a real rough start! Shortly into the season I was 20-32 betting sides and totals in basketball. I was buried approximately 15 units. At that time I made a change in my handicapping style that relies tremendously on statistical analysis of line movement and team trends that put player and match up analysis on the back burner (though not ignored). I dug deeper into stats than ever before and began a new "system" so to speak. I got hardcore, even looking at historical trends of referees on the floor in that nights game. What has happened could be explained away as luck or random variance, but since then I am 77-57 against the spread. I have been flat betting for every game accept eight games where I bet two units (I am 6-2 in those 8 games). Overall, against the spread and throwing in a few teasers these are my results up to date:
Spread 97-89 (2 unit bets 6-2) +4.65 units
Teasers 1-3 -2.3 units
Overall 98-92 +2.35 units
Considering how I started--in a 15 unit hole--and this is the first year I have ever handicapped basketball, and I work a full time job, and play live poker 15-20 hours a week, I am so proud of this accomplishment. I didn't play poker last night but I watched in satisfaction as the OKC-Dallas game went over the total to put me 2.35 units ahead for the season. I could be a cheapskate and not bet another game this year just to say I beat the spread for a year (and it would be legitimate) but I love the action and the challenge so much that I will continue through the playoffs and NBA finals. There will probably be another 15-25 bets this season for me to go in the red or stay in the black. I can't wait to find out what happens!
Disciplined Degenerate
Monday, April 30, 2012
I had the button
I played six hours last night and I won $10! I will take that considering the game wasn't all that good and I was stuck $225 at one point.
There was one hand on the night that stood out. The hand teaches a lot about image and position. There were two people who limped in (we were playing 7 handed) and I limped on the button with 78. The big blind, a tough but overaggressive player made it $15 more in the big blind. One person called and I saw a flop on the button. The effective stacks were about $175. I called because I knew both players very well and I had position. The raiser raises a lot of pots and had a wide range, and the caller is a pretty ABC regular who gives my bets super respect. Knowing what I know about them and having position I didn't think I was in a terrible spot. And 78 is not a bad hand at all.
The Flop came Q 4 2 and both players checked. I thought about taking a stab at it right there but the preflop check was a little bit suspicious in my opinion from the big blind. He continuation bets 80%+ of the time when he raises and I thought he could be slow playing something. I checked. The Turn came a 9 and it put two clubs on board. Again they both checked. At this point I am 60% sure that the BB has missed this flop with a hand like AK, AJ, KJ or maybe has something like 66 and just wants to show it down. And I am 90% the other player doesn't have a hand that will call. I bet $35 and the BB called after thinking for just a few seconds. The other player mucked and the 4 of clubs hit the river. The BB checked to me again. At this point I was about 80% sure I could take the pot. I really didn't think he would open check to me with anything decent three streets in a row. In addition, the board pairing 4's and putting a third club out there could earn a fold from a hand like 66. I bet $75 and he went in the tank for a long time. Now I was really concerned he had the 66 or 77 type of hand that would make a crying call. But after about 30 seconds he folded and showed AQ! I was really surprised he had that hand. I wasn't so much surprised that he would fold it to me on that river, but that he played it so passively the whole way. I asked if he wanted to see my hand and he said yes and I showed. The whole table gasped and could not believe it. One guy before I turned it over said "100% he has two clubs in his hand." The BB actually smiled and applauded my play and said "I didn't think you had that move in your repertoire." Another player said "what did you have?" when the cards got swept away by the dealer. I answered, "I had the button." Two or three people at the table were absolutely stunned. They couldn't believe that I would make that move. What they don't realize is that I do make moves like this every now and again. They just don't know because it works most of the time. I do it because I have such a straight forward, conservative image. And that image is correctly applied for the most part. I rarely make pure bluffs like this. But I do in certain spots. When the turn of events and my table image makes it a profitable play, I give it a shot. I could probably do it even more than I do now successfully but I also am trying to play a low variance style these days to protect my bankroll.
The hand is a great way to illustrate some of the old wisdom that says Texas Hold Em is about position and people. If you know the people you are playing with and you play in position you are starting off with an edge. That play is so much tougher to make against unknown players and even harder out of position. The beauty is that after hands like that you can go right back to playing solid hands and sometimes they will pay you off because they remember that play. And sure enough not even 20 minutes later I rivered a set of 5's against the same player after the flop and turn went check check. I made a $40 bet and he called instantly and my three 5's took the pot. Maybe he had a really good hand, but after checking three times to me again I don't think he was that strong. That bluff was still in his mind and we would have paid me off with a wide range there.
Yesterday I may have only won $10 in poker but I had one of the sweeter sports bet victories of my life when the Clippers came back from a 27 point 4th quarter deficit to win outright on the road against the Memphis Grizzlies. I had written the game off and if I was at home I wouldn't even have witnessed it as I would have changed the channel and not turned it back. But the game was on at the poker club and I got to witness history. As I made a comeback from $225 in the hole to $10 ahead the Clippers made and awesome come back as well!
Tonight I am taking the night off from poker. I played about 75-80 hours in April and it was a good month. I will take tonight off and jump head first into a new month tomorrow rested and ready to go. Tonight I will kick back and watch the Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks play basketball. And I will be rooting for the over!
I am three weeks and 21 days into the 52 week, 365 day quest and it is going well so far. I am winning and feel good. Bring on week four!
Disciplined Degenerate
There was one hand on the night that stood out. The hand teaches a lot about image and position. There were two people who limped in (we were playing 7 handed) and I limped on the button with 78. The big blind, a tough but overaggressive player made it $15 more in the big blind. One person called and I saw a flop on the button. The effective stacks were about $175. I called because I knew both players very well and I had position. The raiser raises a lot of pots and had a wide range, and the caller is a pretty ABC regular who gives my bets super respect. Knowing what I know about them and having position I didn't think I was in a terrible spot. And 78 is not a bad hand at all.
The Flop came Q 4 2 and both players checked. I thought about taking a stab at it right there but the preflop check was a little bit suspicious in my opinion from the big blind. He continuation bets 80%+ of the time when he raises and I thought he could be slow playing something. I checked. The Turn came a 9 and it put two clubs on board. Again they both checked. At this point I am 60% sure that the BB has missed this flop with a hand like AK, AJ, KJ or maybe has something like 66 and just wants to show it down. And I am 90% the other player doesn't have a hand that will call. I bet $35 and the BB called after thinking for just a few seconds. The other player mucked and the 4 of clubs hit the river. The BB checked to me again. At this point I was about 80% sure I could take the pot. I really didn't think he would open check to me with anything decent three streets in a row. In addition, the board pairing 4's and putting a third club out there could earn a fold from a hand like 66. I bet $75 and he went in the tank for a long time. Now I was really concerned he had the 66 or 77 type of hand that would make a crying call. But after about 30 seconds he folded and showed AQ! I was really surprised he had that hand. I wasn't so much surprised that he would fold it to me on that river, but that he played it so passively the whole way. I asked if he wanted to see my hand and he said yes and I showed. The whole table gasped and could not believe it. One guy before I turned it over said "100% he has two clubs in his hand." The BB actually smiled and applauded my play and said "I didn't think you had that move in your repertoire." Another player said "what did you have?" when the cards got swept away by the dealer. I answered, "I had the button." Two or three people at the table were absolutely stunned. They couldn't believe that I would make that move. What they don't realize is that I do make moves like this every now and again. They just don't know because it works most of the time. I do it because I have such a straight forward, conservative image. And that image is correctly applied for the most part. I rarely make pure bluffs like this. But I do in certain spots. When the turn of events and my table image makes it a profitable play, I give it a shot. I could probably do it even more than I do now successfully but I also am trying to play a low variance style these days to protect my bankroll.
The hand is a great way to illustrate some of the old wisdom that says Texas Hold Em is about position and people. If you know the people you are playing with and you play in position you are starting off with an edge. That play is so much tougher to make against unknown players and even harder out of position. The beauty is that after hands like that you can go right back to playing solid hands and sometimes they will pay you off because they remember that play. And sure enough not even 20 minutes later I rivered a set of 5's against the same player after the flop and turn went check check. I made a $40 bet and he called instantly and my three 5's took the pot. Maybe he had a really good hand, but after checking three times to me again I don't think he was that strong. That bluff was still in his mind and we would have paid me off with a wide range there.
Yesterday I may have only won $10 in poker but I had one of the sweeter sports bet victories of my life when the Clippers came back from a 27 point 4th quarter deficit to win outright on the road against the Memphis Grizzlies. I had written the game off and if I was at home I wouldn't even have witnessed it as I would have changed the channel and not turned it back. But the game was on at the poker club and I got to witness history. As I made a comeback from $225 in the hole to $10 ahead the Clippers made and awesome come back as well!
Tonight I am taking the night off from poker. I played about 75-80 hours in April and it was a good month. I will take tonight off and jump head first into a new month tomorrow rested and ready to go. Tonight I will kick back and watch the Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks play basketball. And I will be rooting for the over!
I am three weeks and 21 days into the 52 week, 365 day quest and it is going well so far. I am winning and feel good. Bring on week four!
Disciplined Degenerate
Sunday, April 29, 2012
14 hours of poker and few sports bets
I didn't post a blog yesterday because I was at the poker table from 11:30 AM until 1:30AM the next morning. I played a nice little 14 hour session. I don't typically play sessions that long. In fact, this was probably my 3rd or 4th longest session ever. I don't play that long very often because I have a real job for one, and secondly, because it is not usually something I want to do. I like being fresh when playing poker and playing long sessions just usually is not the best way to keep your mind fresh. About a year ago I did play a 24.25 hour poker session without stopping. I will share that story with you in a future blog.
Yesterday was Player Appreciation Day at the poker club I play at. They were giving away thousands of dollars in cash and prizes and there was free food and lots of games. I started the No Limit game with three other players at 11:30 AM. About 5 hands into the session I flopped a straight against a player who had two pair and I was ahead, and was ahead for the next 14 hours!
The cards treated me well and over 14 hours I played very well with the exception of 5 or 6 hands.
Here are some of the notable hands of the day. The good, the bad, and the unlucky:
The Good:
I check raised a man on the turn to $60 on a board of A 10 5 4 when I held 22 in my hand. I have played with the guy many times I knew he would fold without the nuts. And he did.
I busted two players with AQ on a board of A J 8. We got it all in on the flop and one player had a straight draw and one player had a flush draw. My hand held and I won a $450 pot.
My JJ beat 1010 on a board of 5 4 5 4 8. My opponent tried to bet me off the hand and I read the situation right and called and won.
I flopped a set of tens and busted a player who had top pair and paid me off when I raised him all in on the turn. He was drawing dead when we got the money all in.
I had 8 10 and called a $21 bet on a flop of 7 9 A. A Jack hit the turn and my opponent had J 9. My straight held and I busted him.
The Bad:
I paid off the nut flush when all I had was top pair and top kicker. I should have known he would not have fired the turn and river without a better hand and the hand cost me $175.
I paid off another nut flush when I had the second nut flush (4 suits on board) when I was sure he was bluffing. That was a $150 mistake.
Made a $25 float on the turn and $60 bluff on the river against a player who pretty much never folds a pair. I should have known not to bluff him.
The Unlucky:
I called a player's all in bet with JJ on a board of 2 6 9 (one heart) and it came heart-heart on turn and river and my opponent showed 45 of hearts and took it down.
The Lucky:
I won $150 in a player appreciation giveaway raffle! Only about 10 prizes were given away to the 60-75 people that were in the building at the time of the drawings. I felt very fortunate to get the free $150.
After 13 hours of No Limit Hold Em and one hour of Omaha 8 or better I ended up winning around $700 (when you include the $150 raffle).
This was a nice win since after my winning streak I had back to back $200 losses (Thursday and Friday night. I didn't blog about Friday night's $200 loss.)
Sports Betting:
As if 14 hours of poker was not enough gamble for me, I also had several sports bets on Saturday. I went 2-0 in the NBA. I bet the under in the Heat Knicks game and won that one, and I teased the Magic and OKC and Dallas over. I hit both of those for a 2-0 day. Unfortunately I lost the money won on those two with two baseball losses. I bet under on Oakland and Baltimore and it went over and I bet over in the Boston Chicago game and it went under. Guess I had those backwards. The good news is that I am back in the black for the basketball season! Dating back to the beginning of the season now I am 96-92 overall (95-89 against the spread and 1-3 on teaser bets) and I am up 0.35 units on basketball! I know that is incredibly small but when you consider I was 20-32 and down nearly 15 units at one point, I am very happy with where I am at. On the year I am 6-2 on bets more than one unit. That is the difference right now and the main reason I am ahead. Tonight I have the Clippers +5.5 against the Grizzlies.
Last night when I went to sleep I was very tired and thinking that I would probably take today off from poker. I should have known better. I should have known that I would be headed to the poker room by about 5:00 pm. I better get going.
Disciplined Degenerate
Yesterday was Player Appreciation Day at the poker club I play at. They were giving away thousands of dollars in cash and prizes and there was free food and lots of games. I started the No Limit game with three other players at 11:30 AM. About 5 hands into the session I flopped a straight against a player who had two pair and I was ahead, and was ahead for the next 14 hours!
The cards treated me well and over 14 hours I played very well with the exception of 5 or 6 hands.
Here are some of the notable hands of the day. The good, the bad, and the unlucky:
The Good:
I check raised a man on the turn to $60 on a board of A 10 5 4 when I held 22 in my hand. I have played with the guy many times I knew he would fold without the nuts. And he did.
I busted two players with AQ on a board of A J 8. We got it all in on the flop and one player had a straight draw and one player had a flush draw. My hand held and I won a $450 pot.
My JJ beat 1010 on a board of 5 4 5 4 8. My opponent tried to bet me off the hand and I read the situation right and called and won.
I flopped a set of tens and busted a player who had top pair and paid me off when I raised him all in on the turn. He was drawing dead when we got the money all in.
I had 8 10 and called a $21 bet on a flop of 7 9 A. A Jack hit the turn and my opponent had J 9. My straight held and I busted him.
The Bad:
I paid off the nut flush when all I had was top pair and top kicker. I should have known he would not have fired the turn and river without a better hand and the hand cost me $175.
I paid off another nut flush when I had the second nut flush (4 suits on board) when I was sure he was bluffing. That was a $150 mistake.
Made a $25 float on the turn and $60 bluff on the river against a player who pretty much never folds a pair. I should have known not to bluff him.
The Unlucky:
I called a player's all in bet with JJ on a board of 2 6 9 (one heart) and it came heart-heart on turn and river and my opponent showed 45 of hearts and took it down.
The Lucky:
I won $150 in a player appreciation giveaway raffle! Only about 10 prizes were given away to the 60-75 people that were in the building at the time of the drawings. I felt very fortunate to get the free $150.
After 13 hours of No Limit Hold Em and one hour of Omaha 8 or better I ended up winning around $700 (when you include the $150 raffle).
This was a nice win since after my winning streak I had back to back $200 losses (Thursday and Friday night. I didn't blog about Friday night's $200 loss.)
Sports Betting:
As if 14 hours of poker was not enough gamble for me, I also had several sports bets on Saturday. I went 2-0 in the NBA. I bet the under in the Heat Knicks game and won that one, and I teased the Magic and OKC and Dallas over. I hit both of those for a 2-0 day. Unfortunately I lost the money won on those two with two baseball losses. I bet under on Oakland and Baltimore and it went over and I bet over in the Boston Chicago game and it went under. Guess I had those backwards. The good news is that I am back in the black for the basketball season! Dating back to the beginning of the season now I am 96-92 overall (95-89 against the spread and 1-3 on teaser bets) and I am up 0.35 units on basketball! I know that is incredibly small but when you consider I was 20-32 and down nearly 15 units at one point, I am very happy with where I am at. On the year I am 6-2 on bets more than one unit. That is the difference right now and the main reason I am ahead. Tonight I have the Clippers +5.5 against the Grizzlies.
Last night when I went to sleep I was very tired and thinking that I would probably take today off from poker. I should have known better. I should have known that I would be headed to the poker room by about 5:00 pm. I better get going.
Disciplined Degenerate
Friday, April 27, 2012
Slowrolled back to reality
Last night the Nationals had a 1-0 lead in the 8th inning. That should have been a lock with their pitching staff! But alas, Mark Kotsay, the former Oakland Athletic of all people ripped a 2 run double into the alley and I lost my only baseball bet of the day. I only have one more day to wait for my NBA fix so I decided on a little parlay today in baseball. I rarely bet parlays, but they are fun. Especially when they hit.
Tonight I have the following 4 team parlay:
Oakland A's +110 (Oakland has the best record against the O's in the past decade in the AL)
Phillies -260 (Roy Halladay pitching. That is a lock right?)
Angels -152 (Weaver pitching, plus the Angels gotta win a game sometime)
Nationals +175 (The Nationals are 14-5 with the Majors best pitching and they are getting +175? Yes please)
This parlay pays 11 to 1. I bet one unit and I am splitting the action with my brother. So 5.5 units if I win and just a measly half unit if I lose.
I also have the under on Oakland and Baltimore at -120 (8) and the Nationals straight up in that +175 spot against the Dodgers.
Last nigh my poker winning streak came to an end in a terrible way. And I was starting to wonder when it would happen. It seems like historically when I have had winning streaks and ran hot the good times usually end with a bang. Either a big loss or a brutal beat. Last night was worse than either. My single biggest pet peeve in poker is slow rolling. I absolutely hate it! I think it is terrible to do to someone and makes for a poor environment in a poker game. I understand Meta Game and all of that and I won't say that I am a guy who has never shown a bluff with the intention of putting someone on tilt, but to me slow rolling in a pot of any significance is just scummy. Last night I got slowrolled by a scumbag.
Last night I was playing with one of the best poker players in Northern California. When I say one of the best I don't mean based on his results. But in terms of natural talent this guy is as good as it gets. His only problem is that he has a bit too much gamble and he has absolutely no steam control. He can grind out $5K over a month of solid play and literally dump it all back in a steam filled tilt session lasting one hour. It is actually quite pathetic to see. It is a waste of pure talent.
Let's call this guy Jimmy for the purposes of this blog. I rarely get involved in big pots with this guy because he does play well and I don't have an ego and feel a need to go after the best like many suckers do. But when you play with someone long enough it will happen. And when he is on tilt there is an edge to be gained. Last night Jimmy was losing in the game and getting a bit unlucky and was definitely tilting. He wasn't full blown gone yet but It was possibly coming. For that reason I called a $10 raise out of the blinds when he raised with 78 knowing that if I hit a big flop I could probably get him for a nice pot. At this point in the night I had been playing about 3 hours and was only stuck about $50. I would have been ahead had I not lost to a one outer earlier in the night when my trips lost to the case Queen on the river. But I was playing well and under control. The flop came K 7 8. I checked and Jimmy bet $20. Now I don't have the nuts here but it is pretty darn good, even better when you consider his range at this point. I raised to about $60 and Jimmy pushed me all in and I of course called. The turn and river came a 9 and 5 which I did not love but felt pretty confident as I tabled my cards. Jimmy sat there and stared at the board for about 5 or 6 seconds after the dealer announced "Two pair, sevens and eights." Then Jimmy says "Two pair?" and turns over KK for top set. Jimmy and I have no bad blood or history together before that hand. In fact I would call our relationship friendly. I have no idea why he decided to do this to me. He knew what I had and he knew what he had, and he led me to believe that I won the pot. Anyone who has played live poker knows it is extremely bad etiquiite to do what he did there. Even half of the table mumbled under their breath what an asshole move it was. Maybe he thought he could get me on Tilt? Maybe he thinks I will go on Tilt like he does and he can get my money because he knows the only way he can get it otherwise is to cooler me? I am not sure. But our relationship took a serious downturn. And I will tell you this...I will slowroll him at some point in the future. It might be in three days it might be in three years, but I will not forget what he did. With things like this, yes, I hold grudges. Whatever way I can, I will have my moment. And he failed at getting me steamed up or tilted. He failed at getting me to buy in $500 and play every hand. I don't tilt Jimmy. I don't lose control. That is why I stay in the game and win month after month and pay my bills and don't have gambling debts. I win. Just because you have no control it doesn't mean others are just like you. I am the Disciplined Degenerate my friend. Discipline is real no matter the fact that you have never seen it. I will see you again scumbag. And you, unlike me, will go on Tilt.
Disciplined Degenerate
Tonight I have the following 4 team parlay:
Oakland A's +110 (Oakland has the best record against the O's in the past decade in the AL)
Phillies -260 (Roy Halladay pitching. That is a lock right?)
Angels -152 (Weaver pitching, plus the Angels gotta win a game sometime)
Nationals +175 (The Nationals are 14-5 with the Majors best pitching and they are getting +175? Yes please)
This parlay pays 11 to 1. I bet one unit and I am splitting the action with my brother. So 5.5 units if I win and just a measly half unit if I lose.
I also have the under on Oakland and Baltimore at -120 (8) and the Nationals straight up in that +175 spot against the Dodgers.
Last nigh my poker winning streak came to an end in a terrible way. And I was starting to wonder when it would happen. It seems like historically when I have had winning streaks and ran hot the good times usually end with a bang. Either a big loss or a brutal beat. Last night was worse than either. My single biggest pet peeve in poker is slow rolling. I absolutely hate it! I think it is terrible to do to someone and makes for a poor environment in a poker game. I understand Meta Game and all of that and I won't say that I am a guy who has never shown a bluff with the intention of putting someone on tilt, but to me slow rolling in a pot of any significance is just scummy. Last night I got slowrolled by a scumbag.
Last night I was playing with one of the best poker players in Northern California. When I say one of the best I don't mean based on his results. But in terms of natural talent this guy is as good as it gets. His only problem is that he has a bit too much gamble and he has absolutely no steam control. He can grind out $5K over a month of solid play and literally dump it all back in a steam filled tilt session lasting one hour. It is actually quite pathetic to see. It is a waste of pure talent.
Let's call this guy Jimmy for the purposes of this blog. I rarely get involved in big pots with this guy because he does play well and I don't have an ego and feel a need to go after the best like many suckers do. But when you play with someone long enough it will happen. And when he is on tilt there is an edge to be gained. Last night Jimmy was losing in the game and getting a bit unlucky and was definitely tilting. He wasn't full blown gone yet but It was possibly coming. For that reason I called a $10 raise out of the blinds when he raised with 78 knowing that if I hit a big flop I could probably get him for a nice pot. At this point in the night I had been playing about 3 hours and was only stuck about $50. I would have been ahead had I not lost to a one outer earlier in the night when my trips lost to the case Queen on the river. But I was playing well and under control. The flop came K 7 8. I checked and Jimmy bet $20. Now I don't have the nuts here but it is pretty darn good, even better when you consider his range at this point. I raised to about $60 and Jimmy pushed me all in and I of course called. The turn and river came a 9 and 5 which I did not love but felt pretty confident as I tabled my cards. Jimmy sat there and stared at the board for about 5 or 6 seconds after the dealer announced "Two pair, sevens and eights." Then Jimmy says "Two pair?" and turns over KK for top set. Jimmy and I have no bad blood or history together before that hand. In fact I would call our relationship friendly. I have no idea why he decided to do this to me. He knew what I had and he knew what he had, and he led me to believe that I won the pot. Anyone who has played live poker knows it is extremely bad etiquiite to do what he did there. Even half of the table mumbled under their breath what an asshole move it was. Maybe he thought he could get me on Tilt? Maybe he thinks I will go on Tilt like he does and he can get my money because he knows the only way he can get it otherwise is to cooler me? I am not sure. But our relationship took a serious downturn. And I will tell you this...I will slowroll him at some point in the future. It might be in three days it might be in three years, but I will not forget what he did. With things like this, yes, I hold grudges. Whatever way I can, I will have my moment. And he failed at getting me steamed up or tilted. He failed at getting me to buy in $500 and play every hand. I don't tilt Jimmy. I don't lose control. That is why I stay in the game and win month after month and pay my bills and don't have gambling debts. I win. Just because you have no control it doesn't mean others are just like you. I am the Disciplined Degenerate my friend. Discipline is real no matter the fact that you have never seen it. I will see you again scumbag. And you, unlike me, will go on Tilt.
Disciplined Degenerate
Thursday, April 26, 2012
Mixed Games and Prop Bets
Last night I got to the card room and there was a very juicy No Limit Game going. There were action players and deep stacks. Unfortunately there was only one No Limit game going and there was a waiting list of 4 people. At this card room being 4th on the waiting list could mean 45 minutes to an hour wait or it could be several hours. The way this game was looking it was going to be a bit of a wait. There was one seat open in the Omaha 8 or Better limit game so I sat down while waiting for No Limit to open up.
I have very little experience at Omaha. Last year I maybe played 10-20 hours total. I know the fundamentals and don't think I am an underdog in the game, but I also don't know that I have any real edge. But I also like playing some of the other games as I believe it helps your overall poker game and you never know when the poker landscape will change. Thanks to TV, Big Bet poker and Hold em probably is not going anywhere, but it is always good to have an idea how to play other games. It is also good for nights like this where my only choice is to wait and sit or wait and play. I played.
When you are running good you are running good. Despite modest experience and knowledge I had a very, very nice session. The structure to the game was $2-4, $2-8. This means preflop can bet and raise between $2 and $4 and between $2 and $8 after the turn. In about 1 hour and 15 minutes I managed to win about $160 playing Omaha. I had a couple of hoggers (meaning winning the whole pot, not splitting) and hardly lost a pot that I played past the flop. In Omaha it is hard for high hands that are the flopped nuts to hold but they held for me tonight. I flopped three jacks and they held (no low came), I flopped a straight and it held, I made a straight on a paired board with a possible flush and it won, and I even made a few lows in nice pots. The table decided to switch the game to Dealer's choice which brought in games like Stud and Draw. I have played these games enough to know what I am doing as well, though I am not super experienced. I was still third up on the list so I agreed and managed to play break even poker at Dealers choice for about an hour.
One interesting hand came up in 5 card draw high low. I was dealt a 5 6 7 8 of spades along with a red jack. This is a great hand for a number of reasons, I have a flush draw, a straight draw, and straight flush draw. But a straight counts for a low as well and any Ace, 2, 3, 4, 9, and even 10 would give me a decent low. The odds of being dealt a straight flush in 5 draw is 65,000 to 1. I was pretty happy to be 4 to a straight flush. I did not make the straight flush but I drew the King of spades for a flush to win the high, and King high also won me the low as my opponents were paired up. I won the whole pot.
It was about two and a half hours before I got in the No Limit game and it was getting late and I was already getting a bit tired. In addition I am still not over my cold yet so I didn't plan on playing long. I ended up playing for just over and hour and had to get home to get some sleep. I am still trying to get healthy and had a long day at work ahead of me. I managed to scrape out a small win in No Limit thanks to a decent pot with 10 10. Overall for the night I profited a little bit over $200.
That makes 11 out of the last 12 sessions as winning sessions (including Omaha and Mixed games) in the poker room. It is hard not to want to play late and play as much as possible when running this well. Often on Thursdays I play pretty late as I know the next day is Friday and I am close to the weekend where I can sleep in (usually). Also, there is a really cute girl who deals on Thursday nights! So I may be putting in a long session tonight (long being 4 or 5 hours on a weeknight/worknight).
One interesting prop came up last night with a friend of mine who is also a dealer at the club I play at. As many of you may know poker players often like to combat occasional boredom by making prop bets on the flops. This includes betting on certain cards coming out and certain suits coming out on the flop. My friend and I play these props when we are playing poker together and have recently started playing when he is dealing. We just keep track of the results and when the night is over we settle up. It is not for big stakes. It is just for fun and to make things a little interesting when you are not in a pot. My card is the Ace of hearts. If the Ace of hearts is the middle card on the flop I win $3, if it is on the outside I win $1. If it is on the outside but the whole board is suited in hearts I win $2. If it is in the middle suited I win $5. If it is in the middle suited with Royal cards--meaning Ace of Hearts in the middle and any combination of KQJ10 in hearts--I win $10 and if it is suited in royal cards on the outside I win $5. If your card comes in the middle with a pair around it you win the value of the pair, plus $3. So if the flop come 3 A 3 and it was the Ace of hearts I would win $6. I win $3 for the card in the middle plus three more dollars for the pair of three's. If your card is on the outside with a pair you win half of the value. So if the flop was 10 10 A I would win $6. I win one dollar for the Ace of hearts on the outside and $5 for half of the 10. Make sense? Well over two nights my buddy had been absolutely smoking me in props. He was up $18 to $2 over about 5 or 6 hours of him dealing while I was playing. So of course I started complaining and whining and sure enough right when my complaining got to its peak the flop came out KAK with the Ace of hearts in the middle! That was a $13 score for me! Not big money but it just goes to teach this valuable gambling lesson: COMPLAIN AND THINGS WILL TURN. Actually the lesson is patience. In the long run the random luck and variance typically evens out. But alas, when he outflops me $10 to $0 tonight I will probably start complaining again.
Only sports bet tonight is the Nationals at -111 against the Padres. I will be watching it at the poker club and looking for the Ace of Hearts in the middle!
Disciplined Degenerate
I have very little experience at Omaha. Last year I maybe played 10-20 hours total. I know the fundamentals and don't think I am an underdog in the game, but I also don't know that I have any real edge. But I also like playing some of the other games as I believe it helps your overall poker game and you never know when the poker landscape will change. Thanks to TV, Big Bet poker and Hold em probably is not going anywhere, but it is always good to have an idea how to play other games. It is also good for nights like this where my only choice is to wait and sit or wait and play. I played.
When you are running good you are running good. Despite modest experience and knowledge I had a very, very nice session. The structure to the game was $2-4, $2-8. This means preflop can bet and raise between $2 and $4 and between $2 and $8 after the turn. In about 1 hour and 15 minutes I managed to win about $160 playing Omaha. I had a couple of hoggers (meaning winning the whole pot, not splitting) and hardly lost a pot that I played past the flop. In Omaha it is hard for high hands that are the flopped nuts to hold but they held for me tonight. I flopped three jacks and they held (no low came), I flopped a straight and it held, I made a straight on a paired board with a possible flush and it won, and I even made a few lows in nice pots. The table decided to switch the game to Dealer's choice which brought in games like Stud and Draw. I have played these games enough to know what I am doing as well, though I am not super experienced. I was still third up on the list so I agreed and managed to play break even poker at Dealers choice for about an hour.
One interesting hand came up in 5 card draw high low. I was dealt a 5 6 7 8 of spades along with a red jack. This is a great hand for a number of reasons, I have a flush draw, a straight draw, and straight flush draw. But a straight counts for a low as well and any Ace, 2, 3, 4, 9, and even 10 would give me a decent low. The odds of being dealt a straight flush in 5 draw is 65,000 to 1. I was pretty happy to be 4 to a straight flush. I did not make the straight flush but I drew the King of spades for a flush to win the high, and King high also won me the low as my opponents were paired up. I won the whole pot.
It was about two and a half hours before I got in the No Limit game and it was getting late and I was already getting a bit tired. In addition I am still not over my cold yet so I didn't plan on playing long. I ended up playing for just over and hour and had to get home to get some sleep. I am still trying to get healthy and had a long day at work ahead of me. I managed to scrape out a small win in No Limit thanks to a decent pot with 10 10. Overall for the night I profited a little bit over $200.
That makes 11 out of the last 12 sessions as winning sessions (including Omaha and Mixed games) in the poker room. It is hard not to want to play late and play as much as possible when running this well. Often on Thursdays I play pretty late as I know the next day is Friday and I am close to the weekend where I can sleep in (usually). Also, there is a really cute girl who deals on Thursday nights! So I may be putting in a long session tonight (long being 4 or 5 hours on a weeknight/worknight).
One interesting prop came up last night with a friend of mine who is also a dealer at the club I play at. As many of you may know poker players often like to combat occasional boredom by making prop bets on the flops. This includes betting on certain cards coming out and certain suits coming out on the flop. My friend and I play these props when we are playing poker together and have recently started playing when he is dealing. We just keep track of the results and when the night is over we settle up. It is not for big stakes. It is just for fun and to make things a little interesting when you are not in a pot. My card is the Ace of hearts. If the Ace of hearts is the middle card on the flop I win $3, if it is on the outside I win $1. If it is on the outside but the whole board is suited in hearts I win $2. If it is in the middle suited I win $5. If it is in the middle suited with Royal cards--meaning Ace of Hearts in the middle and any combination of KQJ10 in hearts--I win $10 and if it is suited in royal cards on the outside I win $5. If your card comes in the middle with a pair around it you win the value of the pair, plus $3. So if the flop come 3 A 3 and it was the Ace of hearts I would win $6. I win $3 for the card in the middle plus three more dollars for the pair of three's. If your card is on the outside with a pair you win half of the value. So if the flop was 10 10 A I would win $6. I win one dollar for the Ace of hearts on the outside and $5 for half of the 10. Make sense? Well over two nights my buddy had been absolutely smoking me in props. He was up $18 to $2 over about 5 or 6 hours of him dealing while I was playing. So of course I started complaining and whining and sure enough right when my complaining got to its peak the flop came out KAK with the Ace of hearts in the middle! That was a $13 score for me! Not big money but it just goes to teach this valuable gambling lesson: COMPLAIN AND THINGS WILL TURN. Actually the lesson is patience. In the long run the random luck and variance typically evens out. But alas, when he outflops me $10 to $0 tonight I will probably start complaining again.
Only sports bet tonight is the Nationals at -111 against the Padres. I will be watching it at the poker club and looking for the Ace of Hearts in the middle!
Disciplined Degenerate
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
Sick But Winning
Well the degenerate in me won out last night and I managed to make it down to the cardroom at about 9:00 PM after napping and watching TV most of the day. I felt a little better and to be honest I really wanted to get out of the house for a bit.
Very early in the session I picked up 99 and called a raise to $5 in the small blind. I saw the flop four handed. The flop came A97 and I was up against A7. We got it all in on the flop and I doubled up early. My stack was up to about $400. The game then got shorthanded and I almost got up and left but stayed as the lineup was good, even 5 handed. I proceeded to not win a pot for about 45 minutes. And not winning a pot for 45 minutes 5 handed is expensive and frustrating. I gave back almost all of my profit and my stack was down to $230. I was getting upset but I didn't let it effect my play. Sure enough the odds evened out and I won some hands. I made top two pair with AQ for a good pot. I picked up JJ twice and won decent pots and just like that I was back up to a $400 stack. It could have been a real big night when I flopped trip 8's against AA but a third heart on the river slowed me down. I won the pot but it could have been huge if not slowed down by the potential flush.
So I more than doubled my buy in after 3 hours of play. The game was still decent but I was happy to get back up to a nice win after losing 45 minutes straight shorthanded. Additionally I still did not feel that great and it felt like a good time to get out.
It was a good day in baseball as well as I won 2 of my 3 games for a profit of just under a unit. I would take that all year in sports!
No action today in baseball. I am leaning towards the Seattle Whitesox game for an under bet (8). But I will probably lay off unless there is some late line movement. I am really excited to bet the NBA playoffs on Saturday!
For tonight, I will just stick to poker and try to keep the winning streak going.
Disciplined Degenerate
Very early in the session I picked up 99 and called a raise to $5 in the small blind. I saw the flop four handed. The flop came A97 and I was up against A7. We got it all in on the flop and I doubled up early. My stack was up to about $400. The game then got shorthanded and I almost got up and left but stayed as the lineup was good, even 5 handed. I proceeded to not win a pot for about 45 minutes. And not winning a pot for 45 minutes 5 handed is expensive and frustrating. I gave back almost all of my profit and my stack was down to $230. I was getting upset but I didn't let it effect my play. Sure enough the odds evened out and I won some hands. I made top two pair with AQ for a good pot. I picked up JJ twice and won decent pots and just like that I was back up to a $400 stack. It could have been a real big night when I flopped trip 8's against AA but a third heart on the river slowed me down. I won the pot but it could have been huge if not slowed down by the potential flush.
So I more than doubled my buy in after 3 hours of play. The game was still decent but I was happy to get back up to a nice win after losing 45 minutes straight shorthanded. Additionally I still did not feel that great and it felt like a good time to get out.
It was a good day in baseball as well as I won 2 of my 3 games for a profit of just under a unit. I would take that all year in sports!
No action today in baseball. I am leaning towards the Seattle Whitesox game for an under bet (8). But I will probably lay off unless there is some late line movement. I am really excited to bet the NBA playoffs on Saturday!
For tonight, I will just stick to poker and try to keep the winning streak going.
Disciplined Degenerate
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