This past year I beat the spread in NFL and NCAA football (just barely) and I also beat it (for a nice win) in 2010. Over a two year period and over hundreds of bets I beat the books at football! That is only something that can be said by professionals, sharps, and people who run lucky for the most part. Did I run lucky? Maybe. However, I flat bet at the NFL and NCAA football. That means I bet one unit on most every game. Over the past two seasons of football, which totals approx 350 bets, I would estimate that 315 of them were bets of one unit. That means that I did not beat football simply cause I was lucky and won one bet that was 40 units. If a player bets one unit for 40 games and loses them all and then wins a 41 unit bet in game 41 technically he would be beating the game. And he would not be considered a good sports bettor. What I am trying to demonstrate is that is not what I did. I grinded out a profit. Ninety percent or more of my bets were one unit and of the 10% that were not, almost all were two units. I may have bet two or three games in two seasons that were over two units, and none were over five. So I don't feel like I "ran lucky." Over a decent (but admittedly not huge) sample I have beat the books. I beat the juice. It feels pretty good. Maybe I am lucky. Maybe I am better than the average bettor. Maybe if I puts serious, hardcore work into it I could make real good money. For me, it just feels real good to win at something that so few people can do.
So when the NCAA and NBA basketball seasons began I thought, "What the heck, lets try to beat the books at basketball." I probably actually know more about the game of basketball than any other sport. I used to play it religiously, and even had some moderate success as a player in high school. But I had never tried to handicap basketball seriously until this season. Things got off to a real rough start! Shortly into the season I was 20-32 betting sides and totals in basketball. I was buried approximately 15 units. At that time I made a change in my handicapping style that relies tremendously on statistical analysis of line movement and team trends that put player and match up analysis on the back burner (though not ignored). I dug deeper into stats than ever before and began a new "system" so to speak. I got hardcore, even looking at historical trends of referees on the floor in that nights game. What has happened could be explained away as luck or random variance, but since then I am 77-57 against the spread. I have been flat betting for every game accept eight games where I bet two units (I am 6-2 in those 8 games). Overall, against the spread and throwing in a few teasers these are my results up to date:
Spread 97-89 (2 unit bets 6-2) +4.65 units
Teasers 1-3 -2.3 units
Overall 98-92 +2.35 units
Considering how I started--in a 15 unit hole--and this is the first year I have ever handicapped basketball, and I work a full time job, and play live poker 15-20 hours a week, I am so proud of this accomplishment. I didn't play poker last night but I watched in satisfaction as the OKC-Dallas game went over the total to put me 2.35 units ahead for the season. I could be a cheapskate and not bet another game this year just to say I beat the spread for a year (and it would be legitimate) but I love the action and the challenge so much that I will continue through the playoffs and NBA finals. There will probably be another 15-25 bets this season for me to go in the red or stay in the black. I can't wait to find out what happens!
Disciplined Degenerate
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