You often here self righteous poker players say that poker is not gambling because it is a skill game. They are wrong. Gambling is anything where you are wagering money on something in which the outcome is not certain. The best poker players in the world, even when playing a table full of fish are gambling. I gambled with a fish on Memorial Day and I lost big time.
There is a player that I have been playing with for a while at my local poker club who is a below average player. I wouldn't call him a terrible player. When the deck hits him he maximizes his wins pretty well. But what helps him when he is winning is what crushes him when he loses. He just can't take his foot off the gas pedal. He can't fold when he has anything.
In the past few weeks he has been holding over me and I have been patiently waiting for him to step into the trap I like to call The Nuts. Yesterday he was winning and had a big stack. I had about $210 in front of me when he raised it to $12. I was on the button and peeked down at KK. I made it $60 to go. This is a pretty large raise, but I was playing the man. He was not folding a lot of his hands here so I wanted to create a big pot with him when I had him crushed, as I assumed that I did now. Sure enough he called and we saw a flop. The door card was a King to reveal a K 5 10 flop. He decided to lead out for $50. I had $160 remaining. I decided to just call and try to get the money in on the turn. I really didn't want to blow him off the hand if he had something like a A 10 or J 10. By calling the pot would probably be big enough for him that he couldn't justify a fold to himself on the turn or river if he put one more dollar in the pot. And don't say "You should protect your hand here." You don't protect your hand in cash games. That is a ridiculous fallacy. You either bluff or you bet for value. The only point where I want to protect a strong hand by blowing everyone out is in a tournament setting. In cash games, when you can rebuy and you are playing one long game that lasts years, you always want action when you have a strong hand (there are very few exceptions which are more related to bankroll management and meta game but they are the extreme exception). If you don't want action when you have the nuts you don't have the stomach for cash game poker. Anyone who tells you differently is wrong. I called and an Ace peeled off giving a K 10 5 A board. He checked and I put my last $110 in the pot. He called and showed AK. Wow, what a cooler. Maybe I used up all my bad cooler repellant the past 30 sessions or so because an Ace hit the river. That one stung. Especially against this guy who I had been waiting to get heads up and trap him when he overplayed a hand. As frustrating as it was I did not scream out or sulk or get too upset. I was more in shock than angry. But there was nothing I could do. Like I said, I never want him out of the hand anyway (after he hit the Ace on the turn I was still 96% to win the pot!!!) and the hands pretty much played themselves. If the hands were reversed, we get it all in also.
This hand shows one important thing. Poker is gambling. Even though I was a 98% favorite on the flop and a 96% favorite on the turn, it was a gamble. I was at risk and I lost. He was forced to put his money in as a 98-2 dog and he didn't even play the hand poorly. You can argue that he should have folded preflop--and maybe he should have against a tight player out of position--but you also can't say that he played this hand bad. This hand came down to the luck of the cards. We gambled for $420.
I ended up losing two buy ins ($400) for my biggest loss in six weeks and went home and called it a night. I don't feel bad about the way I played, it was just time to pay some bills. In any business there is expenses and overhead. For a professional poker player or an advantage gambler that is what bad beats and bad luck are. They are the cost of doing business. Without them you could never profit in the long run. Tonight after a movie I will be back in business at my poker room. Hopefully no more bills come due this week!
Disciplined Degenerate
Tuesday, May 29, 2012
Wednesday, May 23, 2012
$500 pot in poker versus a $10 sports bet
So what is more frustrating to you--losing a $500 pot in poker on a bad beat or losing a $10 sports bet in the last second of a game due to bad luck? Believe it or not, losing the sports bet is more emotionally troubling to me. I care more about $500 than $10 but when I lose a sports bet in terrible, unlucky fashion I sometimes feel like I might not ever get that money back. In poker, I know I will get the money back. I have been playing for almost 9 years and I have always been a winner at poker. I know it is a long term game that I have an edge at. Despite some recent success in sports betting I am not necessarily a "winning sports bettor." It is too early to determine if I am that or not. When I make a pick that has the appearances of a good pick and lose in the last second due to bad luck or a fluke play, it is extremely aggravating.
Last night I had a bet on the under in the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers. The game, for almost the entire first three quarters was on pace to go under. Going into the fourth quarter they needed to score 51 points combined to go over the number. The most points scored in any of the the first three quarters was 46. This was by no means wrapped up or a lock going into the fourth quarter but it was looking good. Basically my pick was solid. The scoring and pace was one that was indicating that it would go under. I figure I was about 65-70% to win the bet going into the fourth. So what happened in the fourth quarter? An offensive explosion! Sixty five points! And in a game that was pretty much over (the game was a blowout) as well. I thought I had that working for me! Now I have had sports bets with much, much worse luck and beats than this, but I can't explain the frustration level that I had last night over this measly $10 loss! There is something so satisfying about correctly handicapping a game and profiting from it. You are using your mind and your wits to try to beat your opponent (The Sportsbook) in a game where they charge juice right off the top. So if you do beat them, there is an enormous sense of satisfaction. You feel smart. You feel sharp. When you lose, you feel like an idiot. And when you lose even though you made a good, smart bet and all indicators say that you are about to win, you feel pissed off! At least I do. I would actually rather be an idiot and handicap a game wrong and lose by a lot than pick the game right and get screwed by a bad bounce or unlucky break. Interestingly enough in poker it is the exact opposite. When I lose because I made a mistake, that hurts more than anything. When I lose from bad luck or a bad beat I don't mind. I played it correctly and if I keep playing that way I will win in the long run. Maybe what is bothering me is that I just might not be betting these games correctly? I have beaten football over two years and I am up a little bit over this entire basketball season so I would like to think I am. But only time will tell, like poker already has, if I am truly a sharp bettor or just another square lining the bookie's pockets.
Disciplined Degenerate
Last night I had a bet on the under in the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers. The game, for almost the entire first three quarters was on pace to go under. Going into the fourth quarter they needed to score 51 points combined to go over the number. The most points scored in any of the the first three quarters was 46. This was by no means wrapped up or a lock going into the fourth quarter but it was looking good. Basically my pick was solid. The scoring and pace was one that was indicating that it would go under. I figure I was about 65-70% to win the bet going into the fourth. So what happened in the fourth quarter? An offensive explosion! Sixty five points! And in a game that was pretty much over (the game was a blowout) as well. I thought I had that working for me! Now I have had sports bets with much, much worse luck and beats than this, but I can't explain the frustration level that I had last night over this measly $10 loss! There is something so satisfying about correctly handicapping a game and profiting from it. You are using your mind and your wits to try to beat your opponent (The Sportsbook) in a game where they charge juice right off the top. So if you do beat them, there is an enormous sense of satisfaction. You feel smart. You feel sharp. When you lose, you feel like an idiot. And when you lose even though you made a good, smart bet and all indicators say that you are about to win, you feel pissed off! At least I do. I would actually rather be an idiot and handicap a game wrong and lose by a lot than pick the game right and get screwed by a bad bounce or unlucky break. Interestingly enough in poker it is the exact opposite. When I lose because I made a mistake, that hurts more than anything. When I lose from bad luck or a bad beat I don't mind. I played it correctly and if I keep playing that way I will win in the long run. Maybe what is bothering me is that I just might not be betting these games correctly? I have beaten football over two years and I am up a little bit over this entire basketball season so I would like to think I am. But only time will tell, like poker already has, if I am truly a sharp bettor or just another square lining the bookie's pockets.
Disciplined Degenerate
Monday, May 21, 2012
Seven weeks of gambling in the books
Six weeks ago I set out to gamble for 365 days straight. I have gambled for 42 days straight days and here are some interesting facts and notes regarding the first six weeks.
-I have played poker 29 of the 42 days
-Of the 13 days I did not play poker I had a sports bet 12 of those days
-The one day that I did not have a sports bet or play poker I played online blackjack and won $7
-Of the 29 days of poker 24 of them have been winning days (one of the better streaks I have had in a while)
- I have made 29 basketball bets with a record of 16-12-1.
- I have made 27 baseball bets with a record of 12-15
-I have played in two home poker games and only one cardroom outside my normal room
I feel very good after six weeks and don't really feel like I have had to "get a bet in" or "make sure I gamble" before bed. It is kind of just part of my life. If I had not been doing this 365 day challenge I probably would have still made a bet about 37 or 38 of the 42 days. It certainly doesn't hurt that I have been winning. As mentioned I have won 24 out of 29 days at poker. That is very likely one of my best runs I have ever had at live poker. I have had periods of time where I won more money, but have not had many times in my life with so few losing sessions over six weeks. And of those five losing sessions, three of them were very small losses. It is has been a nice run.
Whenever I go on a hot streak in poker I always kind of expect it to end with a bang like a really bad beat or big loss. Last night appeared to be headed in that direction. I was playing in a very loose, aggressive, profitable game at my local club. The only problem was I just could not hit a flop or a draw to save my life. I was into the game for $600 in buy ins and down to my last $160 about five hours into the session. So I was down $440. Usually I don't let myself get stuck more than two buy ins ($400) in this game. I will just up and leave. However, this game was so juicy and profitable that I had to stay in the game. There was just too much opportunity. And like usual I was not on tilt. I was remaining patient and my confidence in poker is probably as high as it has ever been right now. I made the executive decision to stay in the game.
I had about $160 when the following hand came along. A very aggressive and loose player raised to $25 after their was a live $5 bet made. An even looser and more aggressive player (one of the craziest regulars at the club) made the call. I called with 88 and two more players behind me called. I was in a five handed pot with four loose, aggressive players who all had my $160 stack covered. As the dealer was preparing to turn the flop I was actually thinking in my head that I deserved to flop a big hand after how patient I had been in this session. Sure enough the poker gods blessed me with an 8 4 2 flop (rainbow). I had flopped the nuts! No matter what, even if I just took the pot now I would win over $100 on the hand which would be nice. But with these characters in the pot I was hoping for a big pot. I got my wish. The original raiser went all in and the crazy player after him called. The all in had set me all in. I pretended to think it over for 10 seconds and then called. Then the player behind me called! I am loving this spot! Yes I could lose and nothing is a sure thing but this is a big edge I have and this is what you dream of in No Limit Hold Em. Then the last player considered calling before actually folding 10 10. The turn was 3 and the crazy player said "I have a straight." It made me nervous a little bit but he was smiling wickedly and holding his cards like he was ready to muck and I was pretty sure he was messing with us. I just didn't want to see a big card on the river as I was pretty sure I was fading overpairs. An Ace hit the river which really scared me. It is hard to put someone on a 5 in this hand but with these guys nothing would surprise me. And of course AA from the original raiser was a possibility. But much to my delight the original raiser turned over JJ and the crazy player on my right mucked and the other player showed an 8 and I scooped a pot around $700.
So after hours of suffering with bad cards and missed draws my patience paid off and I was able to book a winning session. This session illustrates that in the long run if you play a solid game and do not tilt off your money patience is rewarded in poker. It also illustrates the importance of having a bankroll sufficient for the game you are playing in. Poker is a long run game and if you can stay in the game financially (bankroll) and emotionally (don't tilt) you can and will win. No matter how talented you are if you can't manage your bankroll and your emotions it is damn tough to win in the long run. This is why I believe that self management is as just as important if not more important than talent and poker fundamentals.
So my winning streak did not end with a bang. It continues. I have heard of people who have said they ran well for six months. I have heard and read stories of professional poker players who have had 40 straight winning sessions. So there is no reason it has to come to an end now. I am hoping I can keep it going for as long as possible. The gambling gods are indeed a fickle bunch. I will enjoy it while it lasts. And when it ends, I will try to play my A game. Because that is when true skill is required in poker--when you run bad. Anyone can flop sets and straights and win. But most are not capable of resisting tilt and losing the minimum when the cards treat them poorly. That has always been my specialty. When that time comes I will be ready to go to work.
Disciplined Degenerate
-I have played poker 29 of the 42 days
-Of the 13 days I did not play poker I had a sports bet 12 of those days
-The one day that I did not have a sports bet or play poker I played online blackjack and won $7
-Of the 29 days of poker 24 of them have been winning days (one of the better streaks I have had in a while)
- I have made 29 basketball bets with a record of 16-12-1.
- I have made 27 baseball bets with a record of 12-15
-I have played in two home poker games and only one cardroom outside my normal room
I feel very good after six weeks and don't really feel like I have had to "get a bet in" or "make sure I gamble" before bed. It is kind of just part of my life. If I had not been doing this 365 day challenge I probably would have still made a bet about 37 or 38 of the 42 days. It certainly doesn't hurt that I have been winning. As mentioned I have won 24 out of 29 days at poker. That is very likely one of my best runs I have ever had at live poker. I have had periods of time where I won more money, but have not had many times in my life with so few losing sessions over six weeks. And of those five losing sessions, three of them were very small losses. It is has been a nice run.
Whenever I go on a hot streak in poker I always kind of expect it to end with a bang like a really bad beat or big loss. Last night appeared to be headed in that direction. I was playing in a very loose, aggressive, profitable game at my local club. The only problem was I just could not hit a flop or a draw to save my life. I was into the game for $600 in buy ins and down to my last $160 about five hours into the session. So I was down $440. Usually I don't let myself get stuck more than two buy ins ($400) in this game. I will just up and leave. However, this game was so juicy and profitable that I had to stay in the game. There was just too much opportunity. And like usual I was not on tilt. I was remaining patient and my confidence in poker is probably as high as it has ever been right now. I made the executive decision to stay in the game.
I had about $160 when the following hand came along. A very aggressive and loose player raised to $25 after their was a live $5 bet made. An even looser and more aggressive player (one of the craziest regulars at the club) made the call. I called with 88 and two more players behind me called. I was in a five handed pot with four loose, aggressive players who all had my $160 stack covered. As the dealer was preparing to turn the flop I was actually thinking in my head that I deserved to flop a big hand after how patient I had been in this session. Sure enough the poker gods blessed me with an 8 4 2 flop (rainbow). I had flopped the nuts! No matter what, even if I just took the pot now I would win over $100 on the hand which would be nice. But with these characters in the pot I was hoping for a big pot. I got my wish. The original raiser went all in and the crazy player after him called. The all in had set me all in. I pretended to think it over for 10 seconds and then called. Then the player behind me called! I am loving this spot! Yes I could lose and nothing is a sure thing but this is a big edge I have and this is what you dream of in No Limit Hold Em. Then the last player considered calling before actually folding 10 10. The turn was 3 and the crazy player said "I have a straight." It made me nervous a little bit but he was smiling wickedly and holding his cards like he was ready to muck and I was pretty sure he was messing with us. I just didn't want to see a big card on the river as I was pretty sure I was fading overpairs. An Ace hit the river which really scared me. It is hard to put someone on a 5 in this hand but with these guys nothing would surprise me. And of course AA from the original raiser was a possibility. But much to my delight the original raiser turned over JJ and the crazy player on my right mucked and the other player showed an 8 and I scooped a pot around $700.
So after hours of suffering with bad cards and missed draws my patience paid off and I was able to book a winning session. This session illustrates that in the long run if you play a solid game and do not tilt off your money patience is rewarded in poker. It also illustrates the importance of having a bankroll sufficient for the game you are playing in. Poker is a long run game and if you can stay in the game financially (bankroll) and emotionally (don't tilt) you can and will win. No matter how talented you are if you can't manage your bankroll and your emotions it is damn tough to win in the long run. This is why I believe that self management is as just as important if not more important than talent and poker fundamentals.
So my winning streak did not end with a bang. It continues. I have heard of people who have said they ran well for six months. I have heard and read stories of professional poker players who have had 40 straight winning sessions. So there is no reason it has to come to an end now. I am hoping I can keep it going for as long as possible. The gambling gods are indeed a fickle bunch. I will enjoy it while it lasts. And when it ends, I will try to play my A game. Because that is when true skill is required in poker--when you run bad. Anyone can flop sets and straights and win. But most are not capable of resisting tilt and losing the minimum when the cards treat them poorly. That has always been my specialty. When that time comes I will be ready to go to work.
Disciplined Degenerate
Tuesday, May 15, 2012
Bluffs, big lay downs, and faith based sports fans
Some things have happened the last few days in my gambling adventures that really teach a good lesson about successful gambling. It may seem overly simple, but if you know the person you are betting with well, you will probably figure out a way to beat him. You may say well they can do the same to you. That is true, but they don't usually do it. Most gamblers lose. They don't think about the things that it takes to be a winner. And even if they do, they probably lack the discipline to stick to the methods needed to win. Here are three examples of knowing your man means knowing profit:
Example 1:
I was playing in a seven handed poker game the other night with several regulars at my home poker club. One of the regulars playing also works there. I have known this guy for years and he is a real nice guy but he is not the best poker player around. He gives away a lot and has several betting patterns and even some physical tells that are pretty easy to read. I was in the big blind with KQs and he limped in for $2 along with three other players. It is no guarantee I had the best hand in the big blind but with my reputation (giving me good fold equity post flop and pre flop) and the fact that I felt I was significantly better than my opponents I justified to myself raising even while out of position. I made it $13 more in the BB. The regular, we will call him Gabe, called. At this point in the game Gabe was stuck about $800 on the day and I could tell by his play and behavior he was willing to gamble in some spots we would not have otherwise in an attempt to try to "get unstuck." You could count on a loose call preflop. We saw a flop heads up. It came AAJ with one spade, which was my suited hand. I checked and Gabe fired $20. I called fairly quickly. In addition to the Broadway draw and backdoor royal flush draw, I had Gabe's number here. It was possible, but extremely unlikely he had an Ace. The way he was playing, he would have raised it up with almost every Ace. He could have a Jack, he could have a pocket pair, but he couldn't win this hand. I knew I would get him. I called on the flop with the intention of making a move on a later street, even if I missed my draw. I was selling an Ace in my hand by check calling as well. The turn was an 8 and I checked and he bet $25. I moved all in for about $125 total. Gabe showed me J8 and folded almost instantly. As I have said in previous blogs, I don't make these big moves and bluffs often. I am given a lot of credit by my fellow regulars and they don't often get to see my cards when I do make these bluffs. I knew the man, I knew the situation, and I won the money.
Example 2:
Last night I was playing at the same club, again with many regulars and I had QQ in the small blind. Several people limped in for $2 and a straight forward, tight playing player made it $7 to go in the cutoff position. The button called and there was a good $15 in dead money out there that I decided would look good in my stack and I made it $34 to go (I started the hand with $190 and the cutoff player had me covered). It got back around to him after everyone else folded and he made it $75 more to go. I have played with this man many times and aside from when he is drunk or on tilt he plays good hands only, and will be bluffing here about 5% of the time. And maybe even less against me as he has laid down some big hands against me and thinks I only play the nuts. When first thinking about it I almost folded immediately without thinking much. But one thing bothered me. What bothered me was the fact that he only made it $7 to go preflop. This player plays very tight and usually only raised with premium hands, and when he does, often bets strong. A $7 raise preflop in this club is very small. It is usually what people do with KQs or J10s or 66 trying to build a pot. That made me 25% sure I had the best hand rather than 5% sure. But even more unbelievable to me was that he would make a move on me here when he is winning, sober, and clear minded. He has to put me on a big hand. I took quite a bit of time to decide what to do. I was basically making a $150 decision, not just $75. If I called the $75 my whole stack was going in basically. Watching him he felt very comfortable and I got the feeling he was really strong. After long deliberation I laid the hand down. In the following moments everyone at the table tried to figure out what I had folded. When someone theorized that I had KK the guy who I had played the pot with said "I am pretty certain he did not have Kings." This makes me believe that he had KK and I made the right laydown. Maybe I was bluffed but I feel pretty good about laying down QQ for maybe the 5th time in my life preflop. If it is true that he had KK I actually made about $120 on that hand. If I am a four to one underdog there I lose 80% of that $150 by playing the hand (I would lose 4 out of 5 times, hence 4/5ths of my money). This would be another situation where knowing the man made me money. I will never know for sure but I am 90% sure I made the right fold.
Example 3:
This is on a real small level but it is something that you can use to make money sometime and maybe sting your buddies a little bit. I have a friend who is a LA Lakers fan. He is what I call a faith based fan. A faith based fan has faith in his team because it is his team and he wants to believe. It is not based on factual and statistical analysis and good sports handicapping. Being a Laker fan that is faith based is even a bigger deal as they have historically had tremendous success. This friend of mine was on cloud nine after the Lakers squeaked by the Nuggets in game 7 after losing in ugly fashion in game 5 and 6. They advanced to the next round where the juggernaut Oklahoma City Thunder wait. The first thing my buddy did was talk about how the Lake Show will take it to OKC. To some people this is just silly or cocky talk. To a gambler like me, it is opportunity. Long story kind of shorter this friend agreed to bet me straight up on the result of the series. He did not ask for a handicap or odds. That would be admitting that his team needs it. And no faith based fan will admit that. The line in Vegas on this series has the Thunder as between a three and a half to four to one favorite for the series. I got the bet at even money. That is more than being on the sharp side of a line. That is stealing! Game one last night displayed this well as the Thunder lead by thirty points at one point in the second half. The bet is not large. The bet is only $20. This man is a friend of mine and we wanted to keep it friendly. But the lesson here is a big one for gamblers - serious gamblers and small gamblers alike: If you can bet against ego you will always be getting the best of it. Ego crushes poker players and it crushes sports bettors. If you have faith in your team no matter what you don't need to bet on them also. You probably aren't getting the best of it. Last year I had another friend who is a Seahawks fan and he bet me $50 that they would win a playoff game if I laid him two to one. If I laid him two to one that they would make the playoffs he would have likely been getting the worst of it. I had that bet won by about week 7.
These stories tell something about gambling. They tell you that you can be a winner if you are a "Student of human moves." Paul Newman talked about this in the film Color of Money. If you can be a student of the people around you and learn their biases, their desires and their weakness you can profit from their mistakes. This may sound predatory and cutthroat, but that is the nature of gambling sometimes. It is no different in the business world. Usually if your competitor does less business you will do more business. Know your man, know your business and you will know profit.
Disciplined Degenerate
Example 1:
I was playing in a seven handed poker game the other night with several regulars at my home poker club. One of the regulars playing also works there. I have known this guy for years and he is a real nice guy but he is not the best poker player around. He gives away a lot and has several betting patterns and even some physical tells that are pretty easy to read. I was in the big blind with KQs and he limped in for $2 along with three other players. It is no guarantee I had the best hand in the big blind but with my reputation (giving me good fold equity post flop and pre flop) and the fact that I felt I was significantly better than my opponents I justified to myself raising even while out of position. I made it $13 more in the BB. The regular, we will call him Gabe, called. At this point in the game Gabe was stuck about $800 on the day and I could tell by his play and behavior he was willing to gamble in some spots we would not have otherwise in an attempt to try to "get unstuck." You could count on a loose call preflop. We saw a flop heads up. It came AAJ with one spade, which was my suited hand. I checked and Gabe fired $20. I called fairly quickly. In addition to the Broadway draw and backdoor royal flush draw, I had Gabe's number here. It was possible, but extremely unlikely he had an Ace. The way he was playing, he would have raised it up with almost every Ace. He could have a Jack, he could have a pocket pair, but he couldn't win this hand. I knew I would get him. I called on the flop with the intention of making a move on a later street, even if I missed my draw. I was selling an Ace in my hand by check calling as well. The turn was an 8 and I checked and he bet $25. I moved all in for about $125 total. Gabe showed me J8 and folded almost instantly. As I have said in previous blogs, I don't make these big moves and bluffs often. I am given a lot of credit by my fellow regulars and they don't often get to see my cards when I do make these bluffs. I knew the man, I knew the situation, and I won the money.
Example 2:
Last night I was playing at the same club, again with many regulars and I had QQ in the small blind. Several people limped in for $2 and a straight forward, tight playing player made it $7 to go in the cutoff position. The button called and there was a good $15 in dead money out there that I decided would look good in my stack and I made it $34 to go (I started the hand with $190 and the cutoff player had me covered). It got back around to him after everyone else folded and he made it $75 more to go. I have played with this man many times and aside from when he is drunk or on tilt he plays good hands only, and will be bluffing here about 5% of the time. And maybe even less against me as he has laid down some big hands against me and thinks I only play the nuts. When first thinking about it I almost folded immediately without thinking much. But one thing bothered me. What bothered me was the fact that he only made it $7 to go preflop. This player plays very tight and usually only raised with premium hands, and when he does, often bets strong. A $7 raise preflop in this club is very small. It is usually what people do with KQs or J10s or 66 trying to build a pot. That made me 25% sure I had the best hand rather than 5% sure. But even more unbelievable to me was that he would make a move on me here when he is winning, sober, and clear minded. He has to put me on a big hand. I took quite a bit of time to decide what to do. I was basically making a $150 decision, not just $75. If I called the $75 my whole stack was going in basically. Watching him he felt very comfortable and I got the feeling he was really strong. After long deliberation I laid the hand down. In the following moments everyone at the table tried to figure out what I had folded. When someone theorized that I had KK the guy who I had played the pot with said "I am pretty certain he did not have Kings." This makes me believe that he had KK and I made the right laydown. Maybe I was bluffed but I feel pretty good about laying down QQ for maybe the 5th time in my life preflop. If it is true that he had KK I actually made about $120 on that hand. If I am a four to one underdog there I lose 80% of that $150 by playing the hand (I would lose 4 out of 5 times, hence 4/5ths of my money). This would be another situation where knowing the man made me money. I will never know for sure but I am 90% sure I made the right fold.
Example 3:
This is on a real small level but it is something that you can use to make money sometime and maybe sting your buddies a little bit. I have a friend who is a LA Lakers fan. He is what I call a faith based fan. A faith based fan has faith in his team because it is his team and he wants to believe. It is not based on factual and statistical analysis and good sports handicapping. Being a Laker fan that is faith based is even a bigger deal as they have historically had tremendous success. This friend of mine was on cloud nine after the Lakers squeaked by the Nuggets in game 7 after losing in ugly fashion in game 5 and 6. They advanced to the next round where the juggernaut Oklahoma City Thunder wait. The first thing my buddy did was talk about how the Lake Show will take it to OKC. To some people this is just silly or cocky talk. To a gambler like me, it is opportunity. Long story kind of shorter this friend agreed to bet me straight up on the result of the series. He did not ask for a handicap or odds. That would be admitting that his team needs it. And no faith based fan will admit that. The line in Vegas on this series has the Thunder as between a three and a half to four to one favorite for the series. I got the bet at even money. That is more than being on the sharp side of a line. That is stealing! Game one last night displayed this well as the Thunder lead by thirty points at one point in the second half. The bet is not large. The bet is only $20. This man is a friend of mine and we wanted to keep it friendly. But the lesson here is a big one for gamblers - serious gamblers and small gamblers alike: If you can bet against ego you will always be getting the best of it. Ego crushes poker players and it crushes sports bettors. If you have faith in your team no matter what you don't need to bet on them also. You probably aren't getting the best of it. Last year I had another friend who is a Seahawks fan and he bet me $50 that they would win a playoff game if I laid him two to one. If I laid him two to one that they would make the playoffs he would have likely been getting the worst of it. I had that bet won by about week 7.
These stories tell something about gambling. They tell you that you can be a winner if you are a "Student of human moves." Paul Newman talked about this in the film Color of Money. If you can be a student of the people around you and learn their biases, their desires and their weakness you can profit from their mistakes. This may sound predatory and cutthroat, but that is the nature of gambling sometimes. It is no different in the business world. Usually if your competitor does less business you will do more business. Know your man, know your business and you will know profit.
Disciplined Degenerate
Friday, May 11, 2012
The things that gamblers say
It always amazes me how truly stupid gamblers can be. Some of the things you here at a poker table or in a casino can be amazing. For example, the other night I heard someone say that if you take the Aces out of the deck in Blackjack that it favors the player. I tried to explain to this self proclaiming card counter why he is wrong and he just did not get it. This is one reason that casinos should not fear card counters at the table. Even the counters make big mistakes and hurt any chance of an edge they can get.
I also recently heard someone say that they thought the cash games in Las Vegas were tough at $2/5 and above. Maybe when you are playing $5/10 and above there is a little truth to it but this person either doesn't know what a good game is or he just has not played enough in Vegas. I have played in some incredibly soft, juicy $2/5 games in Las Vegas. If you game select well you can find a good one for sure.
Yesterday when watching the Hawks and Celtics game it was amazing to me how many players at the poker table knew exactly what the teams should be doing strategically in the final moments of the game. And then when the teams did something differently they would all say something like "What a stupid play," or "What are they thinking?" Now I am sure all of us are guilty of this at one time or another while watching sports but it just amazes me sometimes how people with so little knowledge of a game think they know so much. I guess the slobs at the poker table know more than the coaches and players who are paid millions?
I obviously don't know very much about basketball because I am on a little losing streak. I have lost four out of five in the NBA. I had a tough loss when the Jazz covered against the Spurs with two seconds left and then the other night I had the over in the Clippers Grizzlies game and the two teams proceeded to score about 40 points combined in the final 15 minutes to go under by a few buckets. But that is the nature of the game in sports betting. It is very streaky. I have had some bad luck this year and some losing streaks but it seems like some of my best winning streaks followed some cold spells. Tonight I am hoping to right the ship in the NBA. I am on the Clippers + 2 against the Grizzlies. The reason the Clips are two point dogs despite being at home is the injury status of Paul and Griffin. But my study indicates to me that both of these guys will play. The Clippers fans will be fired up and I think they have a good chance to close it out on their home floor. And I don't see them losing by a lot. So I like my bet there. I am also trying to end a three game losing streak in baseball. I am 15-17 on the year in MLB and down 1.5 units. I am taking it slow and letting the season develop more and will increase my action when basketball ends. But tonight I like the Giants and I am on them -116 against the D-backs.
Poker has been void of significant results lately. Because of the move and some personal matters that I have been busy with I have not played a whole lot. I have booked some small wins though and have not had any real losses. I am hoping to get some good hours in at the table this weekend.
Disciplined Degenerate
I also recently heard someone say that they thought the cash games in Las Vegas were tough at $2/5 and above. Maybe when you are playing $5/10 and above there is a little truth to it but this person either doesn't know what a good game is or he just has not played enough in Vegas. I have played in some incredibly soft, juicy $2/5 games in Las Vegas. If you game select well you can find a good one for sure.
Yesterday when watching the Hawks and Celtics game it was amazing to me how many players at the poker table knew exactly what the teams should be doing strategically in the final moments of the game. And then when the teams did something differently they would all say something like "What a stupid play," or "What are they thinking?" Now I am sure all of us are guilty of this at one time or another while watching sports but it just amazes me sometimes how people with so little knowledge of a game think they know so much. I guess the slobs at the poker table know more than the coaches and players who are paid millions?
I obviously don't know very much about basketball because I am on a little losing streak. I have lost four out of five in the NBA. I had a tough loss when the Jazz covered against the Spurs with two seconds left and then the other night I had the over in the Clippers Grizzlies game and the two teams proceeded to score about 40 points combined in the final 15 minutes to go under by a few buckets. But that is the nature of the game in sports betting. It is very streaky. I have had some bad luck this year and some losing streaks but it seems like some of my best winning streaks followed some cold spells. Tonight I am hoping to right the ship in the NBA. I am on the Clippers + 2 against the Grizzlies. The reason the Clips are two point dogs despite being at home is the injury status of Paul and Griffin. But my study indicates to me that both of these guys will play. The Clippers fans will be fired up and I think they have a good chance to close it out on their home floor. And I don't see them losing by a lot. So I like my bet there. I am also trying to end a three game losing streak in baseball. I am 15-17 on the year in MLB and down 1.5 units. I am taking it slow and letting the season develop more and will increase my action when basketball ends. But tonight I like the Giants and I am on them -116 against the D-backs.
Poker has been void of significant results lately. Because of the move and some personal matters that I have been busy with I have not played a whole lot. I have booked some small wins though and have not had any real losses. I am hoping to get some good hours in at the table this weekend.
Disciplined Degenerate
Tuesday, May 8, 2012
Moving, online poker, and sports parlays with ashtray change
It has been a busy few days. I spent all day Friday and Saturday moving into a newer, nicer, bigger apartment in my apartment complex. I am all moved in and set up and I am very happy with the place.
I have managed to stay in action everyday and keep the 365 day quest going, but it has been pretty minimal. On Friday I wanted to bet Atlanta +8 against Boston and in the chaos of moving I did not get my bet placed in time. I needed to get a bet down on someone since I would not be playing poker so I bet one unit on the Lakers +3 against the Nuggets and of course I lost. The night before I was planning on betting Atlanta and I am so mad at myself for not locking the bet in. The Hawks covered and the Lakers did not. That is a 2.1 unit swing due to my forgetfulness.
On Saturday I made a small bet on Union Rags in the Kentucky Derby (and managed to forget to watch the race, caught up in the move) and then made a bet on the Spurs -5.5 against the Jazz which I won.
On Sunday I finally had some time to get to the poker room and played three hours of live poker and broke about even after three hours of play.
And then yesterday I bet the Spurs again against the Jazz, trying to ride the San Antonio wave of covering spreads. Going into last night they are 37-10 ATS in their last 47. Runs like that against the spread just don't happen often. Of course the Jazz made a layup with 2 seconds left to make the final score a 6 point deficit and I was laying 8. Not a great couple of days for basketball. I am down a couple of units the last few days and back to even on the year. Still plenty of games left, and hopefully the Spurs keep up the hot streak because I plan on backing them some more.
Last night I did something that I have not done in over a year. I played online poker...for real money. It was pretty damn cool. I signed up on a website that has a sportsbook that I have been wanting to join for a while. They have real good juice and they have real small minimum wager requirements. What I like about this is what you can do with parlays. I normally don't like to bet parlays. They are impossible to beat as the odds you are paid are not true or close to it. However, they can be fun. And they can be low risk. This site that I signed up for allows 50 cent parlays. So today I have a 50 cent parlay on all 15 favorites in MLB and if they all win I collect $2100. Not bad for risking nothing more than you might find in your car ashtray or sofa cushions!
The sportsbook and online poker accounts are linked and so last night I played my first online poker for real money since Black Friday. Due to the instability and uncertainty of these websites that are allowing Americans to play poker I will never risk having big money in one of these accounts. This sign up is simply for me to make some fun, cheap exotic bets in sports and to play some low stakes poker in the comfort of my home when I don't want to go out or have time to go to the poker room. Last night I played about 200 hands of No Limit Poker and after getting stuck one buy in, I got just shy of even before bed. It felt good to play online. I prefer live poker and with the nature of the industry right now I won't make any real significant money online (outside of a large field tourney score perhaps) but it is a nice option. There is nothing like sitting on your couch and watching a game or a movie and playing a couple of tables on your laptop. Or if you wake up and 2:00 am and can't sleep it is always nice to know there is a game going online and you can jump on and play a few hands. It is also a great way for me to practice elements of poker that I don't play much of such as short handed No Limit or other poker games like Omaha and Stud. And there is nothing quite so fun as the heads up Sit and Go. And you won't find that in many live poker rooms. It is just one more way for me to keep my game sharp and have a little fun.
Tonight I will head back to the poker room and get back to the grind. April was a good month and I am ready to get the month of May cranking!
Disciplined Degenerate
I have managed to stay in action everyday and keep the 365 day quest going, but it has been pretty minimal. On Friday I wanted to bet Atlanta +8 against Boston and in the chaos of moving I did not get my bet placed in time. I needed to get a bet down on someone since I would not be playing poker so I bet one unit on the Lakers +3 against the Nuggets and of course I lost. The night before I was planning on betting Atlanta and I am so mad at myself for not locking the bet in. The Hawks covered and the Lakers did not. That is a 2.1 unit swing due to my forgetfulness.
On Saturday I made a small bet on Union Rags in the Kentucky Derby (and managed to forget to watch the race, caught up in the move) and then made a bet on the Spurs -5.5 against the Jazz which I won.
On Sunday I finally had some time to get to the poker room and played three hours of live poker and broke about even after three hours of play.
And then yesterday I bet the Spurs again against the Jazz, trying to ride the San Antonio wave of covering spreads. Going into last night they are 37-10 ATS in their last 47. Runs like that against the spread just don't happen often. Of course the Jazz made a layup with 2 seconds left to make the final score a 6 point deficit and I was laying 8. Not a great couple of days for basketball. I am down a couple of units the last few days and back to even on the year. Still plenty of games left, and hopefully the Spurs keep up the hot streak because I plan on backing them some more.
Last night I did something that I have not done in over a year. I played online poker...for real money. It was pretty damn cool. I signed up on a website that has a sportsbook that I have been wanting to join for a while. They have real good juice and they have real small minimum wager requirements. What I like about this is what you can do with parlays. I normally don't like to bet parlays. They are impossible to beat as the odds you are paid are not true or close to it. However, they can be fun. And they can be low risk. This site that I signed up for allows 50 cent parlays. So today I have a 50 cent parlay on all 15 favorites in MLB and if they all win I collect $2100. Not bad for risking nothing more than you might find in your car ashtray or sofa cushions!
The sportsbook and online poker accounts are linked and so last night I played my first online poker for real money since Black Friday. Due to the instability and uncertainty of these websites that are allowing Americans to play poker I will never risk having big money in one of these accounts. This sign up is simply for me to make some fun, cheap exotic bets in sports and to play some low stakes poker in the comfort of my home when I don't want to go out or have time to go to the poker room. Last night I played about 200 hands of No Limit Poker and after getting stuck one buy in, I got just shy of even before bed. It felt good to play online. I prefer live poker and with the nature of the industry right now I won't make any real significant money online (outside of a large field tourney score perhaps) but it is a nice option. There is nothing like sitting on your couch and watching a game or a movie and playing a couple of tables on your laptop. Or if you wake up and 2:00 am and can't sleep it is always nice to know there is a game going online and you can jump on and play a few hands. It is also a great way for me to practice elements of poker that I don't play much of such as short handed No Limit or other poker games like Omaha and Stud. And there is nothing quite so fun as the heads up Sit and Go. And you won't find that in many live poker rooms. It is just one more way for me to keep my game sharp and have a little fun.
Tonight I will head back to the poker room and get back to the grind. April was a good month and I am ready to get the month of May cranking!
Disciplined Degenerate
Thursday, May 3, 2012
KK no good!
I played poker last night and was down, then up and finished down again. It was a small loss, only $40 but when you were up $150 at one point is always frustrating to go home a loser.
I flopped a set of 8's early in the night and won some other small pots to get the profit, but then had some misfortune later on. I had some nice hands snapped off and then I had KK and ran into AA. That is the nightmare situation in No Limit Hold Em but fortunately I got away from it only losing about $100 (me an my opponent both had $300). It could have been a lot worse. But my opponent played them pretty slow and the board was bad enough for me to get away from the KK cheaply.
My last blog was discussing how well I have been doing lately at basketball betting. So you had to know right after writing that blog I would go 0-2 the next night! That is what I did last night. One was a half a point loss (had the Clippers +6.5 and they lost by 7) and was a tough one to swallow. But you get used to the highs and lows and have to stay the course. Tonight I am on the Miami Heat -5 against the Knickerbockers of New York.
I will probably play a few hours of poker tonight but it is possible Friday and Saturday will be light gambling days, with just a few sports bets and maybe no poker. I am moving on Saturday and Friday I am taking the day off from work to pack and get ready. I am sure I will find a baseball or basketball game to bet on though. I will keep you posted.
Disciplined Degenerate
I flopped a set of 8's early in the night and won some other small pots to get the profit, but then had some misfortune later on. I had some nice hands snapped off and then I had KK and ran into AA. That is the nightmare situation in No Limit Hold Em but fortunately I got away from it only losing about $100 (me an my opponent both had $300). It could have been a lot worse. But my opponent played them pretty slow and the board was bad enough for me to get away from the KK cheaply.
My last blog was discussing how well I have been doing lately at basketball betting. So you had to know right after writing that blog I would go 0-2 the next night! That is what I did last night. One was a half a point loss (had the Clippers +6.5 and they lost by 7) and was a tough one to swallow. But you get used to the highs and lows and have to stay the course. Tonight I am on the Miami Heat -5 against the Knickerbockers of New York.
I will probably play a few hours of poker tonight but it is possible Friday and Saturday will be light gambling days, with just a few sports bets and maybe no poker. I am moving on Saturday and Friday I am taking the day off from work to pack and get ready. I am sure I will find a baseball or basketball game to bet on though. I will keep you posted.
Disciplined Degenerate
Tuesday, May 1, 2012
Beating the spread is sweet
This past year I beat the spread in NFL and NCAA football (just barely) and I also beat it (for a nice win) in 2010. Over a two year period and over hundreds of bets I beat the books at football! That is only something that can be said by professionals, sharps, and people who run lucky for the most part. Did I run lucky? Maybe. However, I flat bet at the NFL and NCAA football. That means I bet one unit on most every game. Over the past two seasons of football, which totals approx 350 bets, I would estimate that 315 of them were bets of one unit. That means that I did not beat football simply cause I was lucky and won one bet that was 40 units. If a player bets one unit for 40 games and loses them all and then wins a 41 unit bet in game 41 technically he would be beating the game. And he would not be considered a good sports bettor. What I am trying to demonstrate is that is not what I did. I grinded out a profit. Ninety percent or more of my bets were one unit and of the 10% that were not, almost all were two units. I may have bet two or three games in two seasons that were over two units, and none were over five. So I don't feel like I "ran lucky." Over a decent (but admittedly not huge) sample I have beat the books. I beat the juice. It feels pretty good. Maybe I am lucky. Maybe I am better than the average bettor. Maybe if I puts serious, hardcore work into it I could make real good money. For me, it just feels real good to win at something that so few people can do.
So when the NCAA and NBA basketball seasons began I thought, "What the heck, lets try to beat the books at basketball." I probably actually know more about the game of basketball than any other sport. I used to play it religiously, and even had some moderate success as a player in high school. But I had never tried to handicap basketball seriously until this season. Things got off to a real rough start! Shortly into the season I was 20-32 betting sides and totals in basketball. I was buried approximately 15 units. At that time I made a change in my handicapping style that relies tremendously on statistical analysis of line movement and team trends that put player and match up analysis on the back burner (though not ignored). I dug deeper into stats than ever before and began a new "system" so to speak. I got hardcore, even looking at historical trends of referees on the floor in that nights game. What has happened could be explained away as luck or random variance, but since then I am 77-57 against the spread. I have been flat betting for every game accept eight games where I bet two units (I am 6-2 in those 8 games). Overall, against the spread and throwing in a few teasers these are my results up to date:
Spread 97-89 (2 unit bets 6-2) +4.65 units
Teasers 1-3 -2.3 units
Overall 98-92 +2.35 units
Considering how I started--in a 15 unit hole--and this is the first year I have ever handicapped basketball, and I work a full time job, and play live poker 15-20 hours a week, I am so proud of this accomplishment. I didn't play poker last night but I watched in satisfaction as the OKC-Dallas game went over the total to put me 2.35 units ahead for the season. I could be a cheapskate and not bet another game this year just to say I beat the spread for a year (and it would be legitimate) but I love the action and the challenge so much that I will continue through the playoffs and NBA finals. There will probably be another 15-25 bets this season for me to go in the red or stay in the black. I can't wait to find out what happens!
Disciplined Degenerate
So when the NCAA and NBA basketball seasons began I thought, "What the heck, lets try to beat the books at basketball." I probably actually know more about the game of basketball than any other sport. I used to play it religiously, and even had some moderate success as a player in high school. But I had never tried to handicap basketball seriously until this season. Things got off to a real rough start! Shortly into the season I was 20-32 betting sides and totals in basketball. I was buried approximately 15 units. At that time I made a change in my handicapping style that relies tremendously on statistical analysis of line movement and team trends that put player and match up analysis on the back burner (though not ignored). I dug deeper into stats than ever before and began a new "system" so to speak. I got hardcore, even looking at historical trends of referees on the floor in that nights game. What has happened could be explained away as luck or random variance, but since then I am 77-57 against the spread. I have been flat betting for every game accept eight games where I bet two units (I am 6-2 in those 8 games). Overall, against the spread and throwing in a few teasers these are my results up to date:
Spread 97-89 (2 unit bets 6-2) +4.65 units
Teasers 1-3 -2.3 units
Overall 98-92 +2.35 units
Considering how I started--in a 15 unit hole--and this is the first year I have ever handicapped basketball, and I work a full time job, and play live poker 15-20 hours a week, I am so proud of this accomplishment. I didn't play poker last night but I watched in satisfaction as the OKC-Dallas game went over the total to put me 2.35 units ahead for the season. I could be a cheapskate and not bet another game this year just to say I beat the spread for a year (and it would be legitimate) but I love the action and the challenge so much that I will continue through the playoffs and NBA finals. There will probably be another 15-25 bets this season for me to go in the red or stay in the black. I can't wait to find out what happens!
Disciplined Degenerate
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