So what is more frustrating to you--losing a $500 pot in poker on a bad beat or losing a $10 sports bet in the last second of a game due to bad luck? Believe it or not, losing the sports bet is more emotionally troubling to me. I care more about $500 than $10 but when I lose a sports bet in terrible, unlucky fashion I sometimes feel like I might not ever get that money back. In poker, I know I will get the money back. I have been playing for almost 9 years and I have always been a winner at poker. I know it is a long term game that I have an edge at. Despite some recent success in sports betting I am not necessarily a "winning sports bettor." It is too early to determine if I am that or not. When I make a pick that has the appearances of a good pick and lose in the last second due to bad luck or a fluke play, it is extremely aggravating.
Last night I had a bet on the under in the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers. The game, for almost the entire first three quarters was on pace to go under. Going into the fourth quarter they needed to score 51 points combined to go over the number. The most points scored in any of the the first three quarters was 46. This was by no means wrapped up or a lock going into the fourth quarter but it was looking good. Basically my pick was solid. The scoring and pace was one that was indicating that it would go under. I figure I was about 65-70% to win the bet going into the fourth. So what happened in the fourth quarter? An offensive explosion! Sixty five points! And in a game that was pretty much over (the game was a blowout) as well. I thought I had that working for me! Now I have had sports bets with much, much worse luck and beats than this, but I can't explain the frustration level that I had last night over this measly $10 loss! There is something so satisfying about correctly handicapping a game and profiting from it. You are using your mind and your wits to try to beat your opponent (The Sportsbook) in a game where they charge juice right off the top. So if you do beat them, there is an enormous sense of satisfaction. You feel smart. You feel sharp. When you lose, you feel like an idiot. And when you lose even though you made a good, smart bet and all indicators say that you are about to win, you feel pissed off! At least I do. I would actually rather be an idiot and handicap a game wrong and lose by a lot than pick the game right and get screwed by a bad bounce or unlucky break. Interestingly enough in poker it is the exact opposite. When I lose because I made a mistake, that hurts more than anything. When I lose from bad luck or a bad beat I don't mind. I played it correctly and if I keep playing that way I will win in the long run. Maybe what is bothering me is that I just might not be betting these games correctly? I have beaten football over two years and I am up a little bit over this entire basketball season so I would like to think I am. But only time will tell, like poker already has, if I am truly a sharp bettor or just another square lining the bookie's pockets.
Disciplined Degenerate
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