Football bets and "getting even"

Week 1 in football is in the books.  It did not go great for me but it did not go terrible either.  I took a small loss in week 1.  Overall I went 7-9 and lost 2.1 units.  The new week starts tonight with the first NFL game with the Cowboys visiting the Giants.  Nothing like having a little action on the first NFL game of the year.  I am on the Giants -4.  I think they can win this game by a touchdown on their home field.  Here are my other bets for College Week 2 NFL Week 1:

Utah -7 against Utah State
Nebraska -5 against UCLA
Western Kentucky +40 against Alabama
Oklahoma State -11 against Arizona
Penn state Virginia under 46.5
Packers -5 against the 49ers
Saints -7 against the Skins
Steelers +8.5 under 52 against Broncos (teaser)


There may be more to come.  If there are I will add them to the blog later.

One thing that amazes me that I have seen a lot lately at the poker table and in casinos is the average gambler's obsession with getting even.  Someone could be an everyday gambler and they know they will be gambling again and again but they have this weird obsession with getting even for the day.  I was playing poker with someone recently who was losing in the game.  He was stuck about $400 and he won a monster pot to get even when he stacked another player.  Before he could even finish stacking his chips he said he was going home since he is even.  But almost before he finished that sentence he was dealt QQ and ended up losing $200 to a player who had 99 on a 9 high board.  Right after the hand the player who was no longer even said, "Well, I can't leave now."  I can only imagine how many millions of dollars have been lost by gamblers all over the world, trying to get even for the day.

In order to be a good gambler I believe you have to look at all of your results as one life long session.  There are no sessions, just breaks.  When I cash out of a poker game the session continues the next day, I am just on a break.

The same rule should apply for when you are ahead big and lose some back.  Many players are willing to gamble more or take bigger risks when they are winning.  Again, to me there is no logic in this thinking.  A play is plus EV or it is not plus EV.  It should have nothing to do with how much you are ahead or behind on the session (I am not referring to tournaments here, but cash gambling).  If I am ahead $300 or stuck $300 I am just as happy or unhappy about losing $50 at all times no matter my session results so far. 

Unless you are playing a game that you are an underdog in--a poker table with better players or a casino game with a house edge--you should actually play longer when you are winning if anything.  Most players do the opposite.  To be safe and make sure you are not making poor decisions it is always safe to play hours, not results.  If you decide you want to play poker for three hours, then play for three hours.  Don't play until you are even or quit when you get just a few bucks ahead.  In both cases you are very likely only losing more money with your decision making.

Disciplined Degenerate