This blog is mostly about poker because the poker table is where I do most of my gambling. But I LOVE FOOTBALL and I love to bet on football and it is time for the season to begin. College football starts in 48 hours and I am fired up. Overall I like the NFL's product more than I like college football's product by just a hair, but the gambling opportunities in college--with 4 times as many games each week--pulls college up to be even with or even more exciting to bet on than the pros.
I have been betting on football for a few years. I have been keeping records of my wins and losses for the past two seasons. I am not a big bettor. My bets are usually in the $10-20 range and I will make anywhere from 5-15 bets a weekend. My gambling and life bankroll are bigger than ever this year but it won't make me go crazy. I will still bet small. I bet on football for fun and I play poker for money. So you won't see me risking hundreds of dollars on a football game like you will see me risking hundreds on a hand of poker. Remember, I am the DISCIPLINED DEGENERATE. I understand that to beat sports for a profit consistently you have to put in more time and research than I am able or willing to right now. And even then because of the small edge that even an expert has--5 to 10%--you have to bet very big to make any significant money in the long run. Poker is about making money. Football betting is therapeutic, relaxing and fun (most of the time!).
Here are my results the past two years:
2010:
78-62 55.7% + 5.9 units
2011:
102-102 50.0% + 0.26 units
Past two years combined:
180-164 52.3% + 6.16 units
So as you can see I have actually beat the game for a tiny bit the past two years. I feel that overall I am a break even bettor. Last year the reason I won a few bucks is because I won my two biggest bets of the year. I bet 4 units on Stanford to cover against Notre Dame and I bet 4.5 units on the under in the Superbowl. Most of my bets throughout the year are 1 unit bets. If you flat bet 1 unit bets all year at -110 you need to hit about 52.5% to break even and beat the Vig. That is almost exactly where I am over my last 344 bets. Fortunately I chose wisely and won my bigger bets to show a small profit. Whether I am a little better than average or lucky I have had a decent two years for an amateur. I hope it continues this fall. I will be in Reno with a friend this Saturday sitting in a casino sportsbook watching every single football game I can and betting on as many as I feel good about. I have already placed several bets. I thought I would share them here:
Week 1 college:
Cal -11.5 against Nevada
I think Cal will be
good this year. Their QB had a good second half last year and may step
up this year. Their running game is always good and it looks like the
Pack lost some of their best defensive players. I think this is a 34-20
type of win for the Bears
South Carolina -7 against Vandy
Gamecocks will be good and starting a game in conference on national TV
is a great way to start the season with a big win and maybe even run up
the score which Spurrier will do sometimes. National TV weeknight dogs
historically do well, but Vandy actually hasn't.
UNLV + 9 against Minnesota
Minnesota has more talent and likely wins but with the Runnin Rebels fired up starting the year at home i think they can keep it close
with their running game. It will be hot (even at 8pm) and a long way from Minn.
Ohio State -23 against Miami Ohio
I think Urban Meyer will have his boys ready to play and they will be motivated this year despite bowl ineligibility like USC was last year. They will keep the foot on the gas and win by at least 4 touchdowns
Tennessee -3 against NC State
I think Tenn could be a very good team this year and I think they are more than a FG better than the wolfpack on a neural field
Oklahoma -31 against UTEP
I think the Sooners will be a juggernaut offensively and could put up 60 in this one. Once again i threw a few bucks down on the Stoops Troops to win the National Title. I hope they start my year by picking me up a unit here because they will probably cost me a unit on the national title future.
Georgia -38 against Buffalo
I like the dogs to jump all over Buffalo and score a lot and allow very little. It is a lot of chalk but this one should be ugly.
Kentucky +14 against Louisville
I don't see Louisville blowing this one out. They win but I think the cats keep it close
West Virgina -25.5 against Marshall
Gino Smith is ready for a big year and the WVU offense should be even better than last year with the second year in the system. I think they could put 40-50 up against the Thundering Herd easily. Just hope the D keeps the margin over 25. This one scares me a bit because in recent years the Mountaineers seem to screw me whether I bet on them or against them.
Arkansas State +37 against Oregon.
I think Arkansas State will score some points this year. Oregon's defense will be strong but i think with the ASU wide open attack they can score 14-20 points which would make Oregon need 50-60 to cover. They could do it but I am gonna take the points.
Washington State + 12 against BYU
I like Leach's chance to score some points and with the high flying blitz happy scheme being implemented by the cougars from Washington they may be able to force a turnover or two and keep this one close.
Iowa -10 against Northern Illinois
I think the Hawks are a step above NIU in most categories and NIU lost their potent QB and their defense was weak last year. I like Iowa by double digits
Virgina Tech Georgia Tech Under 48.5
With decent defenses and G Tech's running game I think this will be a smash mouth conference game without a whole lot of offense
Degen teaser Navy + 23 against Notre Dame Penn State PK against Ohio
I have to bet against Notre Dame whenever possible and getting 23 with
the triple threat offense, I will take it. I think Penn State feels the whole
world is against them and will band together and win this game at home.
Ohio is solid but they are solid in the Mac and Penn State only lost
one defensive player to the drama and their D is very good. I like PSU
in the 17-14 neighborhood.
These are all one unit bets.
I also made a bet with a poker player who happens to be a Michigan Homer. He bet me $50 that Michigan would beat Alabama straight up. The point spread is double digits but he actually said he doesn't need the points and will make the bet straight up. If I went into a casino and wanted to bet $50 on Alabama straight up without laying any points, I would get $10 back for a win. It is safe to say that I am getting the best of it in this bet. Whenever you have the chance to bet against someone who is betting on their favorite team, there is always a great opportunity to get the best of the bet. I talk about that a bit more in my past blog about Faith Based Sports Fans.
Disciplined Degenerate
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