Some things have happened the last few days in my gambling adventures that really teach a good lesson about successful gambling. It may seem overly simple, but if you know the person you are betting with well, you will probably figure out a way to beat him. You may say well they can do the same to you. That is true, but they don't usually do it. Most gamblers lose. They don't think about the things that it takes to be a winner. And even if they do, they probably lack the discipline to stick to the methods needed to win. Here are three examples of knowing your man means knowing profit:
Example 1:
I was playing in a seven handed poker game the other night with several regulars at my home poker club. One of the regulars playing also works there. I have known this guy for years and he is a real nice guy but he is not the best poker player around. He gives away a lot and has several betting patterns and even some physical tells that are pretty easy to read. I was in the big blind with KQs and he limped in for $2 along with three other players. It is no guarantee I had the best hand in the big blind but with my reputation (giving me good fold equity post flop and pre flop) and the fact that I felt I was significantly better than my opponents I justified to myself raising even while out of position. I made it $13 more in the BB. The regular, we will call him Gabe, called. At this point in the game Gabe was stuck about $800 on the day and I could tell by his play and behavior he was willing to gamble in some spots we would not have otherwise in an attempt to try to "get unstuck." You could count on a loose call preflop. We saw a flop heads up. It came AAJ with one spade, which was my suited hand. I checked and Gabe fired $20. I called fairly quickly. In addition to the Broadway draw and backdoor royal flush draw, I had Gabe's number here. It was possible, but extremely unlikely he had an Ace. The way he was playing, he would have raised it up with almost every Ace. He could have a Jack, he could have a pocket pair, but he couldn't win this hand. I knew I would get him. I called on the flop with the intention of making a move on a later street, even if I missed my draw. I was selling an Ace in my hand by check calling as well. The turn was an 8 and I checked and he bet $25. I moved all in for about $125 total. Gabe showed me J8 and folded almost instantly. As I have said in previous blogs, I don't make these big moves and bluffs often. I am given a lot of credit by my fellow regulars and they don't often get to see my cards when I do make these bluffs. I knew the man, I knew the situation, and I won the money.
Example 2:
Last night I was playing at the same club, again with many regulars and I had QQ in the small blind. Several people limped in for $2 and a straight forward, tight playing player made it $7 to go in the cutoff position. The button called and there was a good $15 in dead money out there that I decided would look good in my stack and I made it $34 to go (I started the hand with $190 and the cutoff player had me covered). It got back around to him after everyone else folded and he made it $75 more to go. I have played with this man many times and aside from when he is drunk or on tilt he plays good hands only, and will be bluffing here about 5% of the time. And maybe even less against me as he has laid down some big hands against me and thinks I only play the nuts. When first thinking about it I almost folded immediately without thinking much. But one thing bothered me. What bothered me was the fact that he only made it $7 to go preflop. This player plays very tight and usually only raised with premium hands, and when he does, often bets strong. A $7 raise preflop in this club is very small. It is usually what people do with KQs or J10s or 66 trying to build a pot. That made me 25% sure I had the best hand rather than 5% sure. But even more unbelievable to me was that he would make a move on me here when he is winning, sober, and clear minded. He has to put me on a big hand. I took quite a bit of time to decide what to do. I was basically making a $150 decision, not just $75. If I called the $75 my whole stack was going in basically. Watching him he felt very comfortable and I got the feeling he was really strong. After long deliberation I laid the hand down. In the following moments everyone at the table tried to figure out what I had folded. When someone theorized that I had KK the guy who I had played the pot with said "I am pretty certain he did not have Kings." This makes me believe that he had KK and I made the right laydown. Maybe I was bluffed but I feel pretty good about laying down QQ for maybe the 5th time in my life preflop. If it is true that he had KK I actually made about $120 on that hand. If I am a four to one underdog there I lose 80% of that $150 by playing the hand (I would lose 4 out of 5 times, hence 4/5ths of my money). This would be another situation where knowing the man made me money. I will never know for sure but I am 90% sure I made the right fold.
Example 3:
This is on a real small level but it is something that you can use to make money sometime and maybe sting your buddies a little bit. I have a friend who is a LA Lakers fan. He is what I call a faith based fan. A faith based fan has faith in his team because it is his team and he wants to believe. It is not based on factual and statistical analysis and good sports handicapping. Being a Laker fan that is faith based is even a bigger deal as they have historically had tremendous success. This friend of mine was on cloud nine after the Lakers squeaked by the Nuggets in game 7 after losing in ugly fashion in game 5 and 6. They advanced to the next round where the juggernaut Oklahoma City Thunder wait. The first thing my buddy did was talk about how the Lake Show will take it to OKC. To some people this is just silly or cocky talk. To a gambler like me, it is opportunity. Long story kind of shorter this friend agreed to bet me straight up on the result of the series. He did not ask for a handicap or odds. That would be admitting that his team needs it. And no faith based fan will admit that. The line in Vegas on this series has the Thunder as between a three and a half to four to one favorite for the series. I got the bet at even money. That is more than being on the sharp side of a line. That is stealing! Game one last night displayed this well as the Thunder lead by thirty points at one point in the second half. The bet is not large. The bet is only $20. This man is a friend of mine and we wanted to keep it friendly. But the lesson here is a big one for gamblers - serious gamblers and small gamblers alike: If you can bet against ego you will always be getting the best of it. Ego crushes poker players and it crushes sports bettors. If you have faith in your team no matter what you don't need to bet on them also. You probably aren't getting the best of it. Last year I had another friend who is a Seahawks fan and he bet me $50 that they would win a playoff game if I laid him two to one. If I laid him two to one that they would make the playoffs he would have likely been getting the worst of it. I had that bet won by about week 7.
These stories tell something about gambling. They tell you that you can be a winner if you are a "Student of human moves." Paul Newman talked about this in the film Color of Money. If you can be a student of the people around you and learn their biases, their desires and their weakness you can profit from their mistakes. This may sound predatory and cutthroat, but that is the nature of gambling sometimes. It is no different in the business world. Usually if your competitor does less business you will do more business. Know your man, know your business and you will know profit.
Disciplined Degenerate
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